News & Analysis
Austerity Bites Ireland and Elite
Ireland's love affair with masochism ... The final bill for Anglo Irish Bank has ballooned to €34bn ... A more shocking set of numbers is hard to imagine. The latest bailout package for Ireland's insolvent banks will raise the nation's budget deficit from an already alarmingly high 12 percent to a jaw dropping 32 percent, which will in turn send overall public debt spiralling upwards to just shy of 100 percent of GDP. Only a few years back, Ireland had one of the best public debt to GDP ratios in the eurozone at under 25 percent. The scale of the deterioration is truly astonishing, and vivid illustration of the degree to which Ireland's "tiger economy" was built on the sand of misallocated credit. ... The good news for Ireland is that these latest bailouts have the potential to draw a line in the sand, and provide a grounding from which the economy can rebuild. The other piece of good news to take from all this destruction is that Ireland has already fully funded itself until the middle of next year ... [But] there must be some doubt over whether Ireland can grow its way back to health. – UK Telegraph
Dominant Social Theme: We are shocked that Ireland has not improved. But we know it will!
Free-Market Analysis: The EUs condition continues to deteriorate and austerity has fanned the flames of resentment as we predicted it would. Ireland is in fact a kind of poster child for the uselessness of what is occurring now. And here at the Bell, we would like to make sure that people do not misunderstand the ramifications. The EU is a core project for the power elite. It is a building block of world government. The elite in no way wants the EU to disintegrate or shrink. In fact, an additional dominant social theme might be: "Sure, we've made mistakes, but we will muddle through, all of us."
The EU is still, for instance, trying to bring Iceland into the fold. And numerous other countries as well. There is debate about offering Turkey and even Russia the ability to join the EU. The EU is expansive because the elite likely had the idea that it could create three or four regional, global building blocks that could serve as a platform for some sort of one-world governance.
We don't need any secret plans or startling admissions from insiders to tell us this. We have eyes and ears (2,000 of them!). The EU, the now-scuttled North American Union (for the moment anyway) and the planned regional enterprises in Asia, Africa and South America tell us what we need to know. This was the plan. Of course there are many, especially in the alternative news community, who will maintain that all is working just fine. That the idea all along was to introduce the EU, build it up and then destabilize it. We find this a stretch. We think the elite basically miscalculated.
Yes, as regards the EU (and many other promotions) it did not count on the truth-telling of the Internet when planning for further globalization. Order from chaos is certainly a utile strategy, but too much chaos, as we have pointed out before, can be counterproductive. And certainly there does seem to be a good amount of chaos in the EU at the present time. The Telegraph reports the following:
Europe's austerity anger grows ... More than 100,000 marchers converged on Brussels from across the EU to protest austerity measures on Wednesday, while Spanish unions took the extraordinary step of breaking ranks with Spain's socialist government by launching a general strike ... "Workers are on the streets today with a clear message to Europe's leaders," said John Monks, head of the European Trade Union Confederation.
"There is a great danger that workers are going to pay the price for the reckless speculation that took place in financial markets," ... he said, reflecting growing bitterness among ordinary people that they are bearing the brunt of austerity while bondholders have been shielded from losses.
Austerity fatigue is surfacing across a large arc of Eastern and Southern Europe, raising concerns that electorates may start to rebel. The Fidesz government in Hungary has already sent the EU and the International Monetary Fund packing, opting for "economic nationalism". Even the police joined demonstrations last week in Romania, hurling their kit at the presidential palace to protest public sector wage cuts of 25%.
The anger in Europe has been interpreted as basically public-union based. But we don't see it that way. As we have pointed out, "austerity" as a solution affects everyone in a given society. Not only are taxes raised, but public services are cut. This would be fine if public services could be privatized and subject to competition, but alas this is not to be. If roads are to crumble and sewers are to rot, this is then a further result of austerity: All must be punished for the sins of a few.
But thanks in part to the Internet (in our view) many middle class Europeans have come to other conclusions about where the blame lies. The fruits of EU membership were harvested by a few – national elites plus the larger power elite – and austerity is indeed a way of demanding that the middle classes pay for this enrichment.
As we pointed out just yesterday, if the elite wanted to jumpstart economies, the best and fastest way to do it would be to disburse central bank funds directly to consumers. Sure, it's not a real solution and would cause eventually cause massive price inflation. But it would likely have a short-term impact. But the elite will not do it because to do so would be to reveal the essential fraudulent nature of the money and banking system itself. So the elite is stuck with the current system of distribution of money through banks and financial firms, which is neither efficient nor especially effective.
Likewise, the power elite (focused on building global governance) could find methodologies besides austerity to cure the EU of its ills. But most significant solutions likely demand the loosening of the ties between EU nation states. This the EU leaders will not do because to do so would be to take a step backwards in their march towards global hegemony. The EU, an increasingly authoritarian regime, cannot afford to be seen as backing down.
And so the EU will stumble forwards. It will demand austerity even though austerity without devaluation is almost proven to fail. It will allow the IMF to inflict on the PIGS what that agency has inflicted on third-world countries around the world. But Europe is not the third world. The unions, public and private, are well aware of the battles being waged and the strategies being implemented. The more this goes on, the more polarized the EU will become and the less support the union will probably derive. If the elite had picked a method of siphoning support AWAY from the EU, it could hardly have done a better job.
Again, many in the alternative news community will maintain that everything is going according to plan. But all across the EU we see signs of burgeoning bellicosity. The tribes of Europe, as we predicted, have come to a conclusion that the EU is no long a source of easy or predictable wealth. And in fact that is not a good thing for the union.
Conclusion: One only needs to look at the bestiality of World War II to understand the savagery that lurks beneath the surface in most European nations. The EU and the central banking system itself bought off the tribes for decades. But the money has ceased to pump and the bill has come due. In our view, the elite in its arrogance and greed has miscalculated – and only time will tell how grave that miscalculation proves to be.
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Posted by Brendan T on 10/19/10 09:10 AM
I'm deeply ashamed to be one of the SILENT Irish.
Mr-Cement-mixer @ the Parliament gates the only rational Soul on the Island.
We will deeply regret & hang our heads in front of our starving ragged kidz & very -soon unless we colectively get a firm grip on these Sadistic Banker-rolled horrible ice-cold-detached,inhuman reptile like Click to view linkme did'nt fall overnite but it went in a twinkling of an eye compared to this collective cowardice. :(
Posted by Helena on 10/11/10 11:13 PM
Why are we Irish silent? Because historically we are most united when we are fighting for survival. The only certainty we possess is that we WILL overcome this.
Why are we Irish silent? Because, being islanders, we know that the lowest ebb is the turn of the tide.
Posted by JP on 10/10/10 07:31 PM
Reply from The Daily Bell
We have written before that we have been surprised by the passivity of the Irish. Celts are an ancient, glorious and ferocious tribe. They stood up to the EU once and then folded as their leaders sold them out. One would think they'd see that by now.
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Click to view link
Who were the Celts? ...
[The Roman] Diodorus notes that:
Their aspect is terrifying...They are very tall in stature, with ripling muscles under clear white skin. Their hair is blond, but not naturally so: they bleach it, to this day, artificially, washing it in lime and combing it back from their foreheaads. They look like wood-demons, their hair thick and shaggy like a horse's mane. Some of them are cleanshaven, but others - especially those of high rank, shave their cheeks but leave a moustache that covers the whole mouth and, when they eat and drink, acts like a sieve, trapping particles of food...The way they dress is astonishing: they wear brightly coloured and embroidered shirts, with trousers called bracae and cloaks fastened at the shoulder with a brooch, heavy in winter, light in summer. These cloaks are striped or checkered in design, with the seperate checks close together and in various colours.
[The Celts] wear bronze helmets with figures picked out on them, even horns, which made them look even taller than they already are...while others cover themselves with breast-armour made out of chains. But most content themselves with the weapons nature gave them: they go naked into battle...Weird, discordant horns were sounded, [they shouted in chorus with their] deep and harsh voices, they beat their swords rythmically against their shields.
Diodorus also describes how the Celts cut off their enemies' heads and nailed them over the doors of their huts, as Diodorus states:
In exactly the same way as hunters do with their skulls of the animals they have slain...they preserved the heads of their most high-ranking victims in cedar oil, keeping them carefully in wooden boxes.
Posted by AmanfromMars on 10/03/10 01:55 AM
And that is a fundamental intelligence failing in those who thought to recapitalise the serial losers and abusive parasites in the System who would have no alternative cash generation business and currency flow plans of their own, and would be nowhere near smart enough to recognise them, whenever they are presented and confronted by novel future memes for immediate overwhelming funding, which would be drawing growing global attention to their compounding inadequacies and loss of invisible control.
It is easily fixed though with Treasury Bonds deposited for safe keeping and currency credit guarantee with Novel Future Meme Programs/AI Project Movers and Shakers.
It appears to be Inscrutable China's Smart Great Game Play .....
Click to view link ....
buying into Valuable Assets and Strategic Services with papers it cannot sell, or no one wants to buy for it is backed by Nothing but a Shrinking Military Force with a Criminal Sub-Prime Negative Equity Portfolio and Crooked and Blinkered MyOPEC Vision. ...... which in AI, is Collapsed Tunnel See.
Posted by Bailingout on 10/02/10 01:35 PM
"We have seen in the US how the Free Market has beefed up elitist pockets at the expense of the common man..."
Actually "we" haven't seen the free market in our lifetimes. Take the financial industry for example, the most heavily regulated and government owned industry in the world. How can anyone believe the industry that was at the heart of the Great Depression, and is at the heart of the current Greater Depression, can be defined as a 'Free Market'?
The PE use powerful governments to exploit the common man. Reducing the power of governments reduces the power of the PE.
Accumulate Gold.
Posted by Ned Delaney on 10/02/10 11:16 AM
Posted by Truesader on 10/01/10 08:23 PM
Reply from The Daily Bell
It works ...
Posted by Truesader on 10/01/10 08:19 PM
"Click to view linkveral Germans urinated on a German flag..."
While I agree that militaristic nationalism is detestable, some sense of national identity is a most useful purgative for notions of global governance. And with the Germans, I fear, the Elite have largely succeeded in engineering a population that is ashamed of who they are, and willing to cast off their identity for a global one.
Click to view link
The jingoistic tone found at many U.S. sporting events does make me a bit uncomfortable. But then again, the U.S. has a Tea Party, and the Germans have...?
Posted by Roberto on 10/01/10 07:33 PM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Our impression as well. But they have been most well-behaved of late.
Posted by Bailingout on 10/01/10 02:24 PM
I have aquaintances who inform me that deals have been and are being made with major developers, bondholders, and bankers which leaves them sitting pretty at the expense of hard working taxpayers.
The Irish I know don't sit well with being buggered and I would expect much in the way of blow back.
Posted by Chris F on 10/01/10 02:08 PM
Posted by Bailingout on 10/01/10 02:07 PM
http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1081621
Posted by Roberto on 10/01/10 12:22 PM
Posted by John Danforth on 10/01/10 12:14 PM
"We are trying to make a point. We believe in free-banking, gold and silver."
I beg your pardon for making you re-state your point. I understand the point and agree. It was the phrase, "if the elite wanted to jumpstart economies, the best and fastest way to do it would be to disburse central bank funds directly to consumers" that got my goat. I respectfully disagree with "best" or "fastest".
Posted by Eric on 10/01/10 11:01 AM
Click to view link
Posted by Bill Ross on 10/01/10 10:48 AM
"entitled to be angry with the bankers"
You would do well by familiarizing yourself with the legal concept of "Odious Debt", which will be gaining great prominence in the minds of "we, the thinking people":
Click to view link
And, bankers should prepare to face the consequences of lending money to irresponsible, criminal addicts with zero possibility of repayment.
Posted by John Danforth on 10/01/10 10:47 AM
For whatever reasons, if a person gets himself into a situation where bankruptcy is inevitable but he doesn't realize it, he works himself half to death and goes on his own 'austerity' program to try to repay his debtors. By the time he must give up, he not only ends up with nothing, but he has suffered through his 'austerity' for however long he made it before he ultimately had to declare bankruptcy.
It can be observed then, that the person who sees bankruptcy on the horizon and then borrows and consumes as much as possible before bankruptcy ends up having lived better than the person who put himself through suffering in order to prevent bankruptcy. If both of these people show up in bankruptcy court on the same day, the austere person might be regarded as a clueless sucker, since the outcome is the same for him as it is for the avaricious person with the exception that the austere person's lifespan has been shortened commensurate with his self-imposed suffering and he has spent years eating hot dogs while the avaricious one ate steak.
Now given the above, the possibility might exist that the following scenario has some merit:
On a national level, all major countries use debt-money and thereby by definition must always run along with increasing national debt. If this is true, then it is also true that eventually the level of debt will become such that it can never be repaid. Even so, additional accumulation of debt can continue up to the point where servicing the interest on the debt becomes impossible.
It seems plausible under such a scenario that when this point comes, a bankruptcy of some sort or another is inevitable. However it works out, the majority of the debt will be repudiated and some assets liquidated. With the inter-linking of finances internationally, it seems likely that the failure of a major economy in this way could set off a cascade of failures through every debt-based economy, depending on their exposure.
If this is seen as a probability, then may also be reasonable to suppose that the winner of the game will be the one that consumes and borrows as much as possible before repudiating the debt. As long as punitive measures can be avoided (with a strong defense), the nation that embarks on such a course will consume real value produced by the debtor nations, then leave them holding the bag.
If any of this scenario holds true, then the countries undergoing austerity programs are only forestalling the inevitable, while the fat cat countries consume everything in reach. Perhaps the citizens of the countries undergoing austerity programs are being cynically bamboozled.
Posted by B.Benhamid on 10/01/10 10:25 AM
Why are the Irish being strangled and starved to save the bankers from their own greed and stupidity is my question?
Posted by John Danforth on 10/01/10 10:18 AM
And presumably the debt-money scheme was concocted to cure the ills of pure paper money-from-thin-air, of which there are examples aplenty. There IS a limit to how much debt-money can be created without reverting to money-from-thin-air creation. That limit is the willingness of the public to be made debt slaves without their consent. Presumably, conversion to air-money will be avoided because the public won't stand for it. At least, this limitation holds a glimmer of hope that we might be able to shrug off this burden without bloodshed.
Therefore I am somewhat surprised to see advocacy of money-from-thin-air here, even if it is somewhat in jest. It is not funny, and I presume that the collected wisdom between 2000 ears is well aware that such money creation would not help any of the victims of 'austerity' and would instead bring their societies to sudden ruin. Such ruin could lead to death and destruction very quickly. That's what makes it not-funny.
Perhaps the collapse into ruin is inevitable. Either way, it seems elimination of fiat currency altogether is the only sane solution. Although I myself do not fear the collapse, believing that it is the only opportunity to reinstate asset-currency in my lifetime, I cannot agree that wanton printing of currency and giving it to anybody will do anything but make the situation much, much worse.
The Brownian solution is immoral at its core, as is any scheme intended to sucker people in via their desire for the unearned. A more radical scheme to destroy the currency overnight by showering the citizenry with currency that represents unearned value (thereby destroying real value) is just as immoral, and implementation of it would destroy the bounds of civility that bind society together in peace. The end does not justify the means. To resort to tired analogies once again, our government/banking complex is eating our seed corn. Why burn down the barn too?
The fact that fat cats got bailed out and the common man got taken does not argue for bail-outs for the common man. Those bailouts rewarded immoral or unwise behavior, and encourage more of it in the future. Extending these same incentives to the population at large would be a disastrous social experiment.
It wouldn't jump-start any economies. It would simply subsidize avarice and punish productivity. It would have the opposite of the intended effect.
Reply from The Daily Bell
We are trying to make a point. We believe in free-banking, gold and silver.
Posted by Denis Boegner on 10/01/10 10:03 AM
This was possible using elastic money created at will by Central Banks. As time went on the populace has become more demanding, the bankers and the industrialists more greedy. Deficits have soared and the debt is too big to pay.
Nothing of the sort could have happened under a gold std, as no money can be spent until it has been saved by someone and borrowed under his terms.
So Big Gov must cut back, it's way too big anyway. This brings us to the austerity of today, with the disgruntled (mostly from the public sector) marching in the streets.
The DB states: " ... austerity without devaluation is almost proven to fail. "You, all 1000 of yous, must be joking. Have you seen the price of gold of late? Even the Euro is in the 1.37 range.
Does this mean that austerity will work?
Western Govs have gotten too large not to fail. Unfortunately this failure will take years to fully materalize and is likely to be messy.
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