A Spooked Economy in October
Last week we received worse than expected unemployment numbers, challenging recent claims that the recession has come and gone. Also, as the economy continues to suffer the after effects of the Federal Reserve-created bubbles of the last decade, there is renewed interest in gold. Fears that the Federal Reserve will pump even more money into the system had caused the price of gold to reach new highs. Also contributing to enthusiasm for gold is continued instability in the banking industry, symbolized this week by fraud allegations that have caused many banks to halt foreclosure proceedings, thus further destabilizing the housing market. Yes, October has a reputation for being a scary month economically and this month is shaping up to be frightening, as well.
The Fed has been wreaking havoc and devaluing our monetary unit steadily since 1913, and greatly accelerating it since the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement in the 1970s. This severing of the dollar's last tenuous link with gold allowed the Fed to create as much new money as it pleased, and it has taken full advantage of this opportunity.
In 1971, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was $1.29 trillion. Today it is $14.6 trillion, nominally. But adjusted for all the inflating the Fed has been doing, it is only $2.73 trillion, which constitutes only a 1% real increase per year! So with all this extra money going around, we may appear nominally wealthier, but the reality is, we have barely moved at all. This is unfortunate especially for the prudent, conscientious savers, whose nest eggs are constantly being devalued. Unless of course, they have saved in something out of the Fed's reach, like gold. While the economy has basically been in a holding pattern against the leeching of wealth by the Fed for 39 years, gold has seen an inflation adjusted increase in value of over 5% per year, if measured in 1971 dollars. This is due to the Fed's ability to make dollars plentiful. And yet, this is the only tactic the Fed can come up with to rescue an economy already devastated by "quantitative easing", as they call it.
The turmoil in the housing market demonstrates how disastrous it is to flood the economy with fiat money. Latest events with foreclosures are good examples of mistakes made in the market, in this case, by the banks, in the rush to soak up manipulated currency. This is why the truly free market depends on sound, honest money, free from false signals of artificially low interest rates.
The government finds ways to spend money even faster than the Fed can create it, bringing our national debt well past the point of the taxpayers ever being able to pay it off. Other nations who, in the past, have eagerly bought up any amount of debt we produced are now starting to resist. We are reaching a crucial point at which the dollar will no longer function, and in the absence of a functioning dollar, restoring sound money will be the only alternative.
The truly scary notion is that those in power might allow our system to collapse so chaotically to the detriment of so many people rather than simply obey the Constitution.
Posted by John Forster on 10/14/10 01:49 AM
Political Solution? We had a worthy candidate in the 2008 election, but the majority didn't want him. No mortal human dictator/president, or faction in the Majority Population or Legislative Body has any more authority than their counterparts – so there will always be wars and violations of each-others' rights until a minority core of men line up under an ethical authority higher than Man. Who will retrain the entire society to love their neighbor as themselves, instead of using human law to plunder their neighbor's property and labor?
Religious Solution? The Lord Jesus Christ is called the "Prince of Peace" because of the human civil and economic peace that results when a minority core of men line up under His authority and laws revealed in the Bible. Proof was furnished to all men, that the final authority to judge human ethics was granted to Jesus, by His everlasting resurrection from the dead. Read the Book.
Economic Solution? Start trading honest quantities of honest measures of honest substances that were really created by the God of the Bible. God said, "let there be a Universe", and there was a Universe (including the gold, silver, and oil, Mogambo!). Central Banks say, "Let there be Money", and whoever prefers their lies over God's truth will become their lawful prey. The Bank/Guvmint-Partnership does not "print money" – they "say" it – they "fiat it" into "existence". Except that it is not there. Sure, it has value ‒ according to the faith applied to it ‒ but no substance or existence.
It is all very well to preserve your own wealth by trading nothing for something. But I would beg you all to consider the need for, and to sacrifice a little ease, comfort, and wealth towards building the inevitable alternate system that will utilize the Net and all available technology to trade title to Quantities of Measurable Substance. We already have the world-scope businesses like GoldMoney, but we also need driving-distance Third-parties that will enable us to give and take delivery of those substances we will use to facilitate trade.
Ron Paul has introduced legislation that would make these necessary actions legal (private mints/capital gains tax/legal tender). Biblical Law requires you to give and receive what is yours. Biblical Law prohibits the massive deceptive theft through taxes, restrictive regulation, and monetary dilution. You must and will, eventually, obey that Law that requires you to be honest about all 3 elements of trade: Quantity, Measure, & Substance. You may cooperate, temporarily, with the deceit and theft of the central bank/Govmint partnership, and keep using that imaginary money, that can only belong to Them, while you pay tax/rent on its use, until they suck away all its trade value by dilution. But after you have enslaved and impoverished yourself and your neighbors, and destroyed your nations, you will still have to return to QMS.
What if more Christians started paying their tithes and offerings in silver to their churches? Does it honor their Creator (Whom they say they worship), to be offering Him their Increase by attempting to employ Title to what does not even exist, and is not even a part of the Creation of their God? Isn't it like bringing Him the sick and the lame and the blind?
When faith in the dollar dies, will these Churches have greater ability to be salt and light with $250,000 in a JP Morgan Chase account, or 10,000 ounces in the vault?
Posted by Dick Fitz on 10/13/10 12:51 AM
I have been reading your site for a few months, lead by an article on Click to view link that linked here. You, LRC, and Economic Policy Journal have become my "go to" sites for insight.
Because of your site, thankfully, I'm getting better at seeing through BS, into fear memes, and seeing where the fear-points of the PE lie. My take- they are SCARED stupid of the extreme possibility of foreclosure shutdown!
Since my partner is out of town, I was home alone tonight, and decided to watch some TV. Raising Hope on FOX. Funny stuff.
The FOX affiliate here broadcasts national FOX segments in the second half, and the one tonight was so obvious it was scary. It starts with a man talking about the foreclosure stay, and Obama's decision to veto it (here's my stream of consciousness typing) The Killing of the Recovery. Political football. Jobs. GDP. Ripple effects in the rest of the economy, depressed values for neighbors, architects and designers lose jobs, lost jobs for builders and building supply and appliance stores, how it was the key the recovery since so much of economy depends on new homes, capital from banks for stoves etc. will freeze, AND (for 3 SECONDS) it HURTS BANKS!* then how it will hurt seniors, and investors, BECAUSE (another 3 SECONDS) We own Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac** and taxpayers will pay for any bailout.
And all at once these homes come back- a million in one day when it's overturned, which creates new crisis, drives prices down AND that HURTS the people who are being RESPONSIBLE and paying their mortgage on time EVERY MONTH only to have the prices of their homes DRIVEN DOWN by these irresponsible F'n GD usless a*holes who are trying to force their congressman to stand up against this since those people that benefit are lazy criminals who deserve to be kicked out of their homes!!!
*This was slipped in, with shots of small town banks-in such an obvious way- to distract from the Big Boys who are REALLY gonna hurt.
**Another 3 seconds, attempting to minimize the role the government played, just a few years ago, in turning Fan N Fred into government loan banks.
(Okay, I edited my "stream of consciousness" to make it more coherent-ish. That is, unless you are one of those people who generally watch MSM drivel, and you won't understand at all)
Jim Angle, the reporter -I mean propagandist- that controlled the narrative did it like a pro. It made me want to find out more about his background! (CIA, NSA, GSachs?)
It's obvious that the big guys know that a large minority of Americans are pissed at the banks, and pissed at the government, and that things are NOT well in the land of the free. Americans don't do wussy "protest days", they get aggressive-well, passive aggressive- sometimes quickly. If the average American, who is paying his mortgage and feels it is fair, starts to sympathize even slightly with these people, a rash of non-payments could crimp the banks HARD!
The PE is pushing this "screw the laws of chain of title, pay the banks!" idea as a scare tactic to the majority of the US who aren't in dire financial straits due to mortgage issues, but most of them have friends and family that are suffering, and they are not going to be quick to sympathize with the banks as well as vote against the interests of people close to them, so this meme could get out of control.
If a large enough stink is raised, Congress (by nature, wimps and followers) will cave and refuse to override the veto.
This will be devastating to the banks, and to the government. The last straw?
Reply from The Daily Bell
Very good. Thank you.
Posted by Rolland Carpenter on 10/12/10 12:03 PM
America's taxpayers and especially future taxpayers are the victims of a multi-trillion dollar swindle. The Fed took in the "toxic assets" of those Wall Street billionaires who were "Too Big to Fail". These so-called "assets" were priced at "notional value"! The biggest TARP recipient, AIG, was not even a "bank". Their 100 billion dollars was mostly or all passed through AIG to its CDS holders, where it was divvied up by the "Too Big to Fail" gang.
Now, the "deficit hawks" will look to Social Security--a paid for benefit--to reduce government deficits rather than substantially fine, prosecute or tax those who were enriched by the "Too Big to Fail" scam.
Posted by Ol' Grey Ghost on 10/12/10 11:15 AM
When the only use for money appears to be as toilet paper or kindling, then that is the time to invest in "things." If you can't afford gold or silver then buy tools (and firearms are tools). Good hand tools can be traded for other necessities. Buy clothes that fit you now and will also fit you later and do this especially for the young folks in your family. The price of clothing is sure to rise but not necessarily your wages. Buy perishables in bulk quantities (ammunition counts as perishables) and learn how to store them.
And also learn to invest in people and your relationship with them. Young people today might refer to this as "networking." When I was younger we called it being part of a family and the more the merrier.
"Family: We may not have it all together, but together we have it All..."
Posted by RF on 10/12/10 11:08 AM
The FED prints money , in that sense they create it but reality it is the millions of daily transactions from the beginning that create the concept- the need for money it is still barter in a simplistic form- trading something for something gold for Federal reserve notes, food for credit, that is money- the states and Fed print thr paper that transacts but people do the transacting, not the , this carries up to the billion dollar levels , the banks transact something for something ,not something for nothing( even though it looks like that- promisory notes and bonds are something) I am being simplistic about this because I think more simplistic approaches are needed to correct the defeciency in our world, more complicated more problematic .
Posted by RF on 10/12/10 09:19 AM
The Fed does not create money, they regulate it, people, business,create wealth thru accumulation and transaction of goods.
The FED prints money to the needs of the industry of transaction, which is creating the problem . Changing that system at this date, creates greater problems for those holding all those promisory notes, they become worthless,,the idealistic reason is great the reality may be difficult- How would you go about changing the monetary system-?? by a decree one day??
"Hear ye,Hear ye -as of today all previous money is not to be used, you debta are absolved , we will issue " new" money and that will be used from today on forth". Heavens, what chaos we might begin, with such an act. I agree,they have destroyed the housing industry, my livelyhood has dissapeared with it,
We little people saw it coming, but all the "boys in charge",did nothing to stop it.Whats to make us believe that it will change? look at the "Change" we got in the last election? New administrations promise the same but get bogged down in the existing systems as soon as the get elected.
Reply from The Daily Bell
The Fed does not create money?
Posted by Onebornfree on 10/12/10 08:34 AM
DB: "Yes, as we have tried to point out in about a thousand articles, what the Fed does is fix the price of money. It is a disaster."
It is more accurate to say that that is what it tries to do, not what it actualy does.
Sooner or later, market forces correct the attempted price fix, everytime.
In the end governments have only very short term control over the purchasing power of money- the market always wins out.
onebornfree @ yahoo dot com
Posted by Cyclecooler on 10/12/10 08:14 AM
The shape of calculators are going to change.
I have just discovered my calculator (circa 2007) needs more zeros. I only bought it 3 years ago. Need one of those widescreen jobbies me thinks.
Anyone want to invest in super widescreen calculators? We could very well need them soon.
Posted by PeterJB on 10/12/10 07:40 AM
Sir, et al:
It is my considered opinion that for the USA to now recover to that Nation known universally as the Bastion of Freedom and Liberty, is far too late. Allow me to list a few points, most of which, if not all, are easily verifiable, if so necessary:
1. The Obama or Democratic Team has had it and numerous key members are abandoning ship like rats. Obvious.
2. The bailouts are not Constitutional and economic crime through manipulations of "leadership" is totally obvious and flawed to favoritism
3. The "foreclosure-gate" Fraud is pervasive and ubiquitous and eats as a cancer at the fundamentals of private property ownership in the US socio-economic framework.
4. Mark to Fantasy allowances given to the TBTF will never allow price discovery without total socio-economic collapse.
5. Continuing Wars are insanity across the board while increasing the tempo of further socio-economic instabilities exponentially..
6. The USA is worse than broke and the whole World knows it, at least enough to perform a 'critical mass' from what can be seen as a captured Nation which has reached a peak of total structural dysfunction. Obviously, looting of the highest order is being ordered by the remaining few.
7. Gold is expressing the grassroots lack of confidence in "Global leadership" and will undoubtedly rise to beyond $20,000 over the next year or so, and the USD will now fail, as all fiat currencies of empire have failed before it, and as all banks have failed in written history... they also will follow into the abyss, despite that which they currently believe(incl. JPM Citi BOA GS, et al).
8.There is no, and I say this with deep respect for Mr. Ron Paul, whose integrity and ideals I admire, leadership on the horizon that have the necessary attributes of integrity, courage, honour, capacity, capability and dedication to humanity, to bring fusion to the national and global communities of men (incl. women) at this time.
9.Western Governments are turning on and against their peoples; to bail out bankers and allied supporters; to suppress the grassroot's rising lack of confidence; to cover the ineptitudes and corruptions of the governing leadership; to attempt to stem that which is actually "extremis", the swan song of empire.
10. The people are rising demographically in nuance for the full spectrum of reasons where all the above is merely just another repeat of past historic events and cycles, of millennium, which we all know of and Yet, we remain in full denial and seek the preference for the blood of our fellow man, through forceful submission and oppression.
The Intellect of Man is again ignored by men, for " fascism.
Posted by CW on 10/12/10 07:33 AM
Dear Dr. Paul:
You say "The truly scary notion is that those in power might allow our system to collapse so chaotically to the detriment of so many people rather than simply obey the Constitution."
We say, really?
Well Dr. Paul you do remember what your Republican past President George Bush said about the Constitution do you not sir?
"Stop throwing the Constitution in my face! It is just a Goddamn piece of paper".
Or, how about our currant President Barrack Hussein Obama who said "the Constitution is a charter of negative liberties. Says what the states can't do to you. Says what the federal government can't do to you, but doesn't say what the federal government or state government must do on your behalf."
So you see sir, if you have a worthless piece of paper purporting negative liberties on the masses, then we need government to come to our rescue.
Your Senators, Congressman and President
PS Let us not forget the Czars on this one either
Posted by Jeff M on 10/12/10 07:07 AM
The bright side is 70 yrs ago we'd be at world war by now so we've evolved a little plus nukes are a big boo-boo.
The so called leaders of the industralised world have no hair there. Talking about haircuts nobody likes to take any in the financial world. They must look like hippies by now.
Ironically those same hippies are the greediest bastards walking the earth today how ironic. Remember peace love and no government interference LOL see ya.
Posted by DRUNK AND DISORDERLY on 10/12/10 06:23 AM
If one considers wage and price fixing as unworkable, then it is just a small step to accept that the Fed Prime Rate is simply price-fixing on a huge scale. Therefore unworkable...
Reply from The Daily Bell
Yes, as we have tried to point out in about a thousand articles, what the Fed does is fix the price of money. It is a disaster.
Posted by Chris F on 10/12/10 05:00 AM
The Telegraph article where Mr Trichet is quoted saying, "we have a consensus on imbalances, the problem is implementation. Some of these articles that they come out with are rather chaotic. I'm wondering, even if the powers that be agree on a one world currency, what are the odds of them actually being able to implement it? Will some state like Idaho manage to pass a law making gold and silver legal tender thus starting the ball rolling towards Sound Money?
Posted by Saneman on 10/12/10 01:19 AM
Mr. Paul, I'm somewhat on your wavelength.
But you are missing something. The progression of financial destruction has been about the reduction, impairment, and elimination of protection, insurance, and safety.
It began at the top. Investment banks, regional banks, insurance companies, hedge funds, etc, used credit default swaps and various OTC derivatives to "insure" against an investment gone bad. Although this toxic financial waste continues today, much of it blew up when counterparty risk soared. And Lehman croaked.
Now, with 250 banks failed, FDIC insurance payouts have exhausted all funds and FDIC is in the red. I guess our bank deposits are now Buninsured/B.
Last week, SIPC (Securities Investors Insurance Corp) admitted the Bernie Madoff fiasco depleted its insurance fund and put SIPC in the red. I guess our stock and bond portfolios are now Buninsured/B.
I wonder if you'll even receive this message,