News & Analysis
Economic Dreamtime Unravels
Almost a year to the day since Britain pulled out of the longest and deepest recession since the Second World War, the Office for National Statistics revealed the economy had swung back into contraction. Is the UK economy heading for another dip? The biggest forecasting miss in memory – the consensus was for the economy to grow by 0.5pc, instead of which it shrank by that amount – caused waves of alarm in the markets and raised a huge question mark over what is happening in the UK. – UK Telegraph
Dominant Social Theme: UK economy's shock GDP fall reignites fears of double-dip. But the best minds are trying to overcome ...
Free-Market Analysis: We notice that the UK is suffering from a spate of terrible numbers, and it is not just the UK. The US continues to create jobs, revenues and higher stock prices, but somehow none of this has an impact on the larger economy. The bottom line is that the regulatory democracy that has functioned for the past 100 years is dying or dead, at least from an economic standpoint. Something else, likely, is coming, though what it will be is not entirely clear yet.
Here at the Daily Bell, we believe it will have to do with an honest-money standard of some sort, but not merely a regurgitation of previous standards controlled by the state. We would like to think that the market itself will generate a free-banking standard and that a free-market in money could once again hold sway.
In truth, we can also see that the power elite is marshalling forces for some sort of controlled or controllable new money. The European Union’s economic situation is so dire that the Chinese have been invited in to help with it. America’s stock market is doing well but the country as whole is not – and this some two years after the 2008 economic crash. As for Britain, it has not even shown the beginnings of the American rebound. The Telegraph article (see excerpt above) tells us this:
Even before the GDP figure, the British Chambers of Commerce was saying another 100,000 jobs will go by the end of the year, taking the jobless figure to 2.6m. With the Bank's hands effectively tied, all eyes will now turn to the March Budget, predicted Ms Pryce. The Chancellor faces the balancing act of keeping his credibility with the markets, which back attempts to cut government borrowing, with the need to help businesses grow.
The UK, as this article points out, is caught in the classic bear-market trap that we've been predicting for several years. It was inevitable that the central bank would begin to print money to restimulate what was after the 2008 crash an unraveling dollar reserve economy. We estimated at the time it might take up to US$100 TRILLION to rejuvinate the Western economic system, and according to some accounts we are already almost halfway there.
But in pouring up to US$50 trillion in money-from-nothing (so far) back into the world’s economy, central bankers have lit a fuse that cannot be damped. The inflation blow-back that will eventually occur will likely raise rates to impossible highs. The resultant paralysis of economic animal spirits will likely be overwhelming. We are beginning to see this dilemma played out in Britain and sooner or later it wil played out throughout the West.
Is it possible that central banking economies can fully re-stimulate growth in the 21st century? As we've pointed out before, the 2000s are a repeat of the 1970s. The syndrome is the same. A crash followed by intensive money printing and then price inflation. This financial syndrome was condensed into a decade in the 1970s. We have often estimated that it will take a full 15 years or perhaps longer in the 2000s.
And yet ... because the money printing has been so excessive, and the bust so deep, we tend to believe that there is little that the powers-that-be can do to truly salvage the system as it is today. Already we see evidences of this. The Chinese and Russians talk openly of a new currency system. The International Monetary Fund pitches a global SDR-oriented currency. One way or another, we would tend to believe the dollar-reserve system is unraveling, the victim of over-printing and other kinds of profligacies.
Nothing constitutes a more powerful dominant social theme than money and its value. The Anglo-American power elite did its best in the 20th century to assure Western citizens that their increasingly evanescent paper dollars were valuable in the long-term. But increasingly, this looks to be untrue, a kind of economic Dreamtime. What seems to be a standard economic formulation in the early 21st century is not, in fact. The dollar "reserve currency" itself is a relatively new invention. Gold and silver have functioned previously as reserve currencies, and for thousands of years. The idea that "fiat" could ever constitute a stable "reserve' is simply a fiction.
Because government can print fiat at will, the distortions to the larger economy can build over decades before ruin sets in. By then the economy is so distorted that only a purgative crash can winnow out the losing endeavors from the winning ones. But in modern crashes, the central banks step in and print yet more money. Thus the economy never unwinds. Lending itself is frozen because no one can tell a healthy business from a failing one. Not only that, the banking sector which most needs a purgative is reinflated most assiduously by central bankers. The bubble is reblown to the degree that it is possible.
Within this context, it is fairly difficult to see how there will be a significant amelioration of unemployment. The bubble that collapsed in 2008 is yet collapsing in our view. Eventually, even the BRICs (China, Brazil, etc.) will suffer; price inflation will cause a contraction of these economies and then where will the West turn for growth? Meanwhile, the West's industrial capacity will continue to be undermined by fiat money printing. An honest money system lies at the core of a healthy economy. A rotten one (in use for nearly a century) eventually hollows out the larger economy. It basically rots from the inside out.
This is what is going on today. Certain parts of Western economies can apparently be restimulated. Certain businesses, the multinationals especially, can be restarted. But the larger economy will remain questionable and even failing. The mis-allocation of resource is a gigantic and uncontrollable one. (Who know what a "real" economy would look like at this point?) Indiscriminate money printing props up failing enterprises along with successful ones. In such economies, employment will like remain suppressed.
Conclusion: Even before the GDP figure, according to the Telegraph, the British Chambers of Commerce was saying another 100,000 jobs would go by the end of the year, taking the jobless figure to 2.6m. Central banking hasn’t worked in the West, nor could it ever. Fiat money sinks towards its intrinsic value which is zero, taking whole economies with it.
Posted by Bruce C. on 02/04/11 08:06 PM
I believe another way to explain the jist of this article is to say that the fiat money system requires a constant increase in the money supply which benefits the first recipients of that fresh money the most (the big banks, Treasury and Wall Street), followed by the next recipients (entitlements, defense companies, etc.) , then on down ultimately to "main street".
Price inflation is a lagging symptom of this process, but the fiat system fails when the economy can't absorb the new money. That is partly why the Fed has to do the bidding of a "healthy" market and buy bonds, and wants the banks to lend to essentially force money into the system.
In the meantime, we're seeing another avenue of dynamics a little more clearly as money is being injected into the global financial system via Wall Street speculation in commodities and US equities. In theory, though it seems intuitively that such a process would be unsustainable, actually is mathematically speaking. After all, it has lasted if not flourished for almost 100 years, the devaluation of the currency by over 96% not withstanding.
It's like watching Zeno's paradox play out between the US dollar and gold.
Posted by Www.onebornfree.blogspot.com on 02/04/11 05:30 PM
@ Jeannie Queenie :
Thank you for your response and comments, and the link.
As to any specific points you raised, all I can say is: what you believe is your choice, and your responsibility, not mine. If you choose to believe the official story, so be it.
I have no problem with what you choose to believe about the events of 911 and no desire to change your opinion " I simply disagree, mostly because,as opposed to believing in unverifiable, non-cross-examined, obscure "witness" testimony from unknown, amorphous,nebulous parties on the internet, and claimed "scientific studies" by "experts", I choose to believe in simple, well established immutable laws of physics which any non-scientist can easily understand ...
Such as the law[s] of gravity [see billiard ball example referenced in a previous post with regard to building collapse times]; and Newton's 3rd law of motion, an understanding of which reveals that the various "live" videos that depict a plane flying into /through WTC2, without slowing at impact, and with no parts falling/jarring off at impact, must be fake videos, not the real thing.
For example see:
Click to view link
Still, as I said, and as with anyone/everyone else, what you choose to believe is ultimately your choice and yours alone, not mine- so choose wisely, [or not]:-) .
I wish you good luck with all of your life choices.
Posted by Jeannie Queenie on 02/04/11 04:13 PM
wow if you believe the septemberclueinfo, I have to tell you that website reveals major CLUELESSNESS. My daughter in law was one of three top salespeople for Click to view link at that time. She had the majority of her clients in one of the towers and lost them when the towers went down.
To reiterate DB...the towers did go, they are all gone along with the people who died in them, the bodies you saw jumping were for real, and so, it is true the buildings were felled by Click to view link is true the guys that rammed the buildings did take flying lessons at small airports and only wanted to learn how to fly the planes....NOT TAKE OFF, NOT LAND, JUST FLY THE DAMN THINGS.
Hello, does this not tell you something? How long is it going to take for all these clueless people to stop denying this was for real? Wake up and smell the fuel and charred remains and let's put this conspiracy crap to rest, okay?
If you need further proof that this wasn't rigged via an inside job, I highly recommend a video put out by Purdue Univ Engineering School as to how the towers were felled by the planes, as they visually show an animated computer version showing how the planes took down the core pillars of the building.
You would not have to have planted or rigged dynamite on several floors or stairwells to fell the towers...the planes DID it..the planes were real...their were real people in the planes..there were real people in the buildings..there were real people cleaning up the mess for a year later..and there are real people who are terribly sick now who did the cleanup...I hope you take the time to watch this..and while watching, please put on your thinking cap and realize this is REAL!
VIDEO: Scientists simulate jet colliding with World Trade Center
Click to view link
Posted by Jeannie Queenie on 02/04/11 03:46 PM
I brought up the Berkshares and the url a few weeks ago on this site. Iv'e learned more from the Economist/April,'09. From the sounds of it not all that much money has passed through in the few years since it started. I would disagree with the Economist that this may be illegal.
It is my understanding that nothing stops us from having our own currency. I read that over 150 towns in the US have alternative currencies now in place. I quote here from that Economist of April, 2009 the following:
"It's not an economic crisis until American cities start using their own currencies. How it works:
"Under the BerkShares [Massachusetts] system, a buyer goes to one of 12 banks and pays $95 for $100 worth of BerkShares, which can be spent in 370 local businesses. Since its start in 2006, the system, the largest of its kind in the country, has circulated $2.3 million worth of BerkShares. In Detroit, three business owners are printing $4,500 worth of Detroit Cheers, which they are handing out to customers to spend in one of 12 shops.
This is a throwback to a trend that began, and ended, with the Great Depression. It's also a long-held goal of hard-core libertarians of the Ron Paul stripe, who don't believe that American currency has any real authority. It keeps money in the local economy! It's sort of illegal but not unless the Feds get annoyed with it and break it up!"
Methinks the Economist didn't do any homework in final sentence.
Posted by Memehunter1 on 02/04/11 01:06 PM
Thanks for the clarifications. I think that I am fundamentally in agreement with you.
I am still not convinced that what you saw was really a plane. Please forgive me for not entirely trusting your eyes.
Posted by Dogwood on 02/04/11 12:31 PM
Also recieved an email from my buddy who did not make it before the news stories flashed.
Talk about dreamtime... believe what you want. Maybe I'm part of the psyops.
Posted by Dogwood on 02/04/11 12:28 PM
Yes, plane into building, repeat. Saw that.
Posted by Www.onebornfree.blogspot.com on 02/04/11 08:34 AM
MetaCynic said: "Your 9/11 argument is not clear. I'm not sure what your point is."
I understand. My unclear point[s] is/are :
that the plane into/through building videos are fake,as they contradicted by basic laws of physics. [see:Click to view link ],
2] The building collapse videos are also fake,[also contradicted by fundamental physical laws, etc. see:Click to view link ]
MetaCynic said: "What's important to understand is that regardless of what struck the towers, real airliners or missiles disguised as airliners, the impacts and resulting fires were not sufficient to bring the towers down in the manner in which they fell."
Our only difference appears to be possibly regarding the validity of the use of network video archived collapse sequence footage to "prove" that demolitions took place.
If you insist on using that footage to prove your/our case I would have to disagree because it is obviously fake to people like myself and others.
Unfortunately, the collapse sequence videos cannot be used as evidence as they are, just like the planes into/through building videos, fake computer animations.
_None_ of the released video footage or stills can be trusted at this time.
The case for demolition must be made via simple logic:
1] the buildings were there on 9/10/01, gone the next day.
2] the plane into building videos are obvious fakes, and besides, even if they were real, as you say ,they could not result in the collapse of the buildings as depicted.
3] the building collapse videos are also obvious fakes, which does not mean that the buildings were not deliberately demolished via controlled demolition, only that the evidence for that cannot come from fake video depicting those events occurring in a wholly unrealistic/impossible manner.
4] The legal principle "false in one, false in all" applies. If plane into/through building videos were faked, that is reason enough to discount ALL other claimed footage [including that of the collapse sequences and of the Pentagon.
If the collapse sequence footage was faked, that also, independently of other findings, is also enough to distrust ALL other footage.
I hope that clarifies somewhat.
Posted by KP on 02/04/11 05:36 AM
""Three symmetric, near free-fall collapses in one place and on the same day are totally unprecedented and cannot be a coincidence.""
That is it! The speed they collapsed suggests free-fall, or very cose to it, but either way they've gone. There is so much evidence against the simple explanation given by the Govt I can't see any resonable person believing it.
The HOW intrigues me, as most conspiracies involve an awful lot of people who knew about it but must never tell, but what's more important is WHY. When the whole war on terror is pinned upon the handful of people responsible then a lot of other 'coincidences' in the world will become clear.
Posted by MetaCynic on 02/04/11 02:25 AM
Your 9/11 argument is not clear. I'm not sure what your point is.
What's important to understand is that regardless of what struck the towers, real airliners or missiles disguised as airliners, the impacts and resulting fires were not sufficient to bring the towers down in the manner in which they fell. Random, asymmetric damage cannot cause symmetric collapse in near free-fall time through hundreds of feet of undamaged construction. Nor can gravity hurl many tons of steel debris hundreds of feet laterally as had happened. Only controlled demolition of some sort can do all that.
We can all speculate endlessly about who was responsible for whatever struck the towers and why. What does seem to be unassailable is the fact that fire alone could not bring them down. Vaster fires burning for many hours in other steel frame highrises had never caused total collapse. Three symmetric, near free-fall collapses in one place and on the same day are totally unprecedented and cannot be a coincidence.
Posted by AmanfromMars on 02/04/11 01:37 AM
Err ..... getting back to the issue, or non-issue of fiat currency as an energiser for ideas that invent industry and business/activities to stop smarter animals vegetating and going feral and cannibal/warlike, the secret of success for the system would appear to be ensure that the supply is given to those who can spend it freely to generate progress and worth with the sharing and management of novel intelligent ideas which create energetic currency flow, whilst the worst thing that one can do, is to give it to bankers to secure in their vaults. That is the problem which is constantly and consistently being avoided/not being aired and changed.
Nota Bene: It is not possible to hide a huge white elephant herd in the middle of a small room, no matter how many bought and paid for suits would be denying it's there, and destroying the furniture/system superstructure. It may be that the system is basically sound but presently is it criminally abused and/or wrongly used.
Oh and I thought this was not incorrect either whenever I read it .... "Economics .... The science of explaining tomorrow why the predictions you made yesterday didn't come true today." ..... Click to view link
And from the selection there, is this one, which also struck a chord and caused me a wry smile and a chuckle ......"Government, If you think the problems we create are bad, just wait until you see our solutions."
Start a Whole New Dream is the KISS Solution. Leave all present mistakes in history and start with a clean page, in a virgin manuscript for a New Great Book and open with "In the Beginning, there is always everything to be made presently available for the future with a smart intelligence supply and free fiat currencies..... streams of source for enterprise and evolving growth."
Posted by Www.onebornfree.blogspot.com on 02/03/11 10:37 PM
KP said: "Its the same law of gravity and they fall at the same speed."
No. The billiard ball is in free fall, and meets no resistance on the way down.
KP said:"You are assuming the structure of the building would somehow hold up the collapsing floors from above. A demo company I used to work with was demolishing a multistorey concrete building. They cut a hole in the middle of a high floor and were using a bulldozer to push material down the hole. "
What are you implying, that this, or something similar, was done at the WTC and that it facilitated the complete,top to bottom collapse of a 1300 ft. tall, 500,000 ton steel and concrete building in under 20 secs., start to finish?
KP said: Buildings are designed to very carefully stand upright, not withstand unusual stresses."
And you believe that the two main WTC towers were somehow _not_ designed to withstand specific "unusual stresses" as you call it, for example:high winds, or airliners colliding with them? .
Surely, such design features [or lack thereof] would be entirely illogical from both a structural/architectural point of view, as well as from a legal point of view [i.e lawsuits, insurance etc.]
Do you have evidence to support such a claim?
Posted by KP on 02/03/11 09:27 PM
"The billiard ball example of the laws of gravity proves this."
It proves that a billiard ball falls to the ground, and that is all. It proves NOTHING about the twin towers.
""Anyone who believes that a person who claims to have witnessed, in real time ... two 500,000 ton steel and concrete buildings collapsing/self destructing, virtually disappearing, from top to bottom, in under 20 seconds, actually did so witness such events [DB staffer or otherwise] is either extremely badly informed, or maybe just extremely naive ' either way, they are getting their "chain yanked", big time.""
Rubbish! Why can't a building fall like that?? You just said a billiard ball takes under 10seconds and you've allowed a building 20seconds. Its the same law of gravity and they fall at the same speed. You are assuming the structure of the building would somehow hold up the collapsing floors from above. A demo company I used to work with was demolishing a multistorey concrete building. They cut a hole in the middle of a high floor and were using a bulldozer to push material down the hole. When the weakened edge collapsed under the bulldozer it crashed down to the floor below. That over-loaded that floor which also collapsed, as did the one below. Buildings are designed to very carefully stand upright, not withstand unusual stresses.
Sorry DB... getting off-topic.
Posted by Www.onebornfree.blogspot.com on 02/03/11 08:49 PM
Daily Bell said : "You need to read our responses and articles before interpreting our comments...."
Here are some of your comments, from this very thread :
"In the case of a Bell staffer, the fall was witnessed from an apartment with a "bird's eye view" of the collapse.
So ... yes, the Towers collapsed. They did so at the times stated. They did not collapse slowly but seemed to vanish all at once, as if from some vast, internal explosion. They shimmered and disappeared. In other words, they did not seem to pancake down. They disintegrated........".
Excuse me if I am mistaken but I interpret this as you saying that a known staff member witnessed, in real life, the same events exactly as depicted in the various collapse sequence videos [WTC 1,2, etc.] , and that [therefor] all other Bell staffers therefor believe this to be a true account.
As I had previously mentioned, you and your staff[and others] have 2 distinct choices in this matter, heresay, or  fundamental immutable laws of physics :
That is, one can either believe unsubstantiated [unverifiable, actually], non cross-examined, so -called eye witness testimony of "a friend" or whomever [i.e. heresay]....
...or  one can choose to believe the immutable laws of physics- in this case [i.e. regarding "filmed" building collapses and "witness" accounts], the immutable laws of gravity.
FACT: A billiard ball, dropped from the exact same height as the WTC 1 and 2 buildings [1300 feet] _in_a_vacuum_, would reach the ground in 9.2 seconds.[So with normal air resistance it would take slightly longer than 9.2 secs to touch down.]
FACT: All of the collapse sequence videos of WTC1 and 2 record times of between 10 and 20 seconds [with a mean average around 17 seconds]from start to finish, top to bottom.
Each of WTC 1 and 2 weighed approximately 500,000 tons- that is, 500,000 tons of steel, and steel reinforced concrete.
I repeat, 500 THOUSAND tons – EACH, of steel and steel reinforced concrete.
A billiard ball weighs what? 4 oz.s?[a guess].
From 1300 feet the billiard ball would hit the ground after 9.2 seconds, _in_a_vacuum_.
Anyone who believes that a person who claims to have witnessed, in real time [i.e not on TV], two 500,000 ton steel and concrete buildings collapsing/self destructing, virtually disappearing, from top to bottom, in under 20 seconds, actually did so witness such events [DB staffer or otherwise] is either extremely badly informed, or maybe just extremely naive – either way, they are getting their "chain yanked", big time.
The billiard ball example of the laws of gravity proves this.
Another clue [one of many] as to the fakery of the collapse sequence videos is the very fact that they occur in reverse, that is, starting at the top, whereas real world demolitions always occur from the ground up, not top down.
Verdict: Either the collapse sequences are totally fake video animations [my opinion and that of "September Clues", see:Click to view link ], or, some top secret as yet unidentified technology was in use that day, technology that both instantaneously turned steel and concrete to dust, and at the same time systematically destroyed the buildings from the top down in a manner never before used in building demolition, in under than 20 seconds. Yeah, right :-)
Posted by Wayne on 02/03/11 08:33 PM
"(Who know what a "real" economy would look like at this point?)'
The article is perfect with just this question!
Posted by Alexsemen on 02/03/11 06:48 PM
I am the stupidyest man on Earth, but when I was 7-8 years old I've played printing money as part of children play.
Later on I went in Uniresity for at least 6 yeras and another 3 years . Long before that I've realised dat to be mature person you won'nt play printing money.
There in the world at large there are few millions people of any kind of study degrees in economy.
What's the benefit of such armada impostors with such salaryies as the ony solution is the same rand-debiel play with printing money.
Or as the best specialist in human history (about religions and the rest) mr. Prof Mircea Eliade it seems that alsmost all world population want ot stay voluntarely in the infancy of civlizations and to play the primitive mind as generals, policeman, and robbery from another!
It seems that mr. Prof Mircea Eliade has 100% right. The imbecile infantiel minds leads our life !
Money printing machine is their longlife toy !
Disguasting ! The fly emperor !!??
Posted by Www.onebornfree.blogspot.com on 02/03/11 06:14 PM
Phil said: "Funny how a discussion of the effect of paper money on an economy can morph into a discussion about the Twin Towers."
Even funnier how a 3rd person [who was apparently not even there], suffering from what appears to be an acute case of "moderator syndrome", leaps to defend the official government version because they claim their best buddy at the DB [who mysteriously will not step forward and describe exactly what they did/did not see], saw "everything" and it is therefor indisputable.
And let's not even get into the humorous spectacle of supposedly avowed "anarcho-capitalists" slavishly defending the official clap-trap " swallowing it "hook, line and sinker" in fact. Heh!
It seems to me that we all [including DB moderators] have a very clear, deceptively simple, but very important choice in this matter:
Either : believe anonymous 2nd and 3rd hand, non-cross-examined "witness" accounts on the internet, whose unverifiable accounts/opinions are somehow beyond dispute, or ...
or, : Believe in fundamental laws of physics,[i.e. Newton's 3rd law of motion].
See:Click to view link
Reply from The Daily Bell
You need to read our responses and articles before interpreting our comments. We never claimed airplanes driven by terrorists hit the World Trade Towers. What we have called for is a new investigation.
Posted by Ingo Bischoff on 02/03/11 06:03 PM
"Is it possible that central banking economies can fully re-stimulate growth in the 21st century?"
No, it isn't possible. What must be understood is that it isn't the lack of or the vanishing of demand which has put the West into an economic straight jacket, it is the destruction and the vanishing of capital.
Capital is being destroyed by the precipitous drop of interest rates which has the effect of raising the liquidation values of capital intensive enterprises. I have launched a DVD project to explain this very fact at:
Click to view link
Any investor should understand the thesis that falling interest rates are destructive to capital. The DVD project presents this thesis. Once you understand that railroad companies, airlines, automobile companies and other capital intensive enterprises go bankrupt because the FED drops interest rates to save the assets of the big banks, you also understand that there is no way at this point to "re-stimulate" growth.
Posted by Www.onebornfree.blogspot.com on 02/03/11 05:54 PM
Memehunter1 said: "Thanks, onebornfree. I thought that this movie "September Clues" was very interesting. However, I think that you misrepresent slightly the thesis offered by the movie, which is that the explosions were caused by missiles (but the planes, etc..., were indeed forgeries according to the movie)."
I believe you are mistaken [you probably need to view it,plus the various add-ons/addendums, a few more times to get a good overview].
At this time, Mr Shack[the author of "September Clues"]does not claim to know one way or another whether a missile struck either WTC1 or 2, or even the Pentagon [I've read his site daily, since inception].
He has suggested it as a possibility, but not an indisputable fact.
However, he _does_ claim that the planes/into/through buildings videos are obvious fakes,[because they defy fundamental laws of physics] as is the plane-fuel explosion [flight 175 into WTC2]; and that the WTC building images, and in fact that the entire NYC skyline, complete with smoke, is one long pre-fabricated computer animation [possibly Google derived], as are the WTC collapse sequences themselves [WTC1 and 2], as is all of the Pentagon post-hit media footage [all TV stations].
Posted by Phil on 02/03/11 05:40 PM
Funny how a discussion of the effect of paper money on an economy can morph into a discussion about the Twin Towers.
Reply from The Daily Bell
Everything leads back? ...