Fed to Deliver More Stimulus "Fairly Soon"
How Much Stimulus Does It Take? 'Sell the News' Event Coming Up Soon?
Analysts poring over the July 31 - August 1, 2012 Fed Minutes quickly honed in on the following paragraph. I put the key sentence in italics.
The Committee had provided additional accommodation at its previous meeting by announcing the continuation of the maturity extension program through the end of the year, and more time was seen as necessary to evaluate the effects of that decision. Nonetheless, many members expected that at the end of 2014, the unemployment rate would still be well above their estimates of its longer-term normal rate and that inflation would be at or below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent. A number of them indicated that additional accommodation could help foster a more rapid improvement in labor market conditions in an environment in which price pressures were likely to be subdued. Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.
Several members noted the benefits of accumulating further information that could help clarify the contours of the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the need for further policy action. One member judged that additional accommodation would likely not be effective in improving the economic outlook and viewed the potential costs associated with such action as unacceptably high. At the conclusion of the discussion, members agreed that they would closely monitor economic and financial developments and carefully weigh the potential benefits and costs of various tools in assessing whether additional policy action would be warranted.
What's the Definition of Many?
There are 12 voting members on the FOMC.
Is "many" three, four, or seven? I think the wording of the Fed minutes was purposely vague, hoping to get a "bang for no buck."
Nonetheless, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, the Chicago Tribune, the Hill, the Daily Beast, and numerous other sites are all expecting another round of QE.
Of course, I expect another round as well, just not necessarily at the next meeting.
Indeed, I think the Fed will take a pass at the next meeting unless all hell breaks loose before the next meeting, which is September 12-13. Otherwise, I expect a "Fed does not want to interfere with the election" type of statement.
How Much Stimulus Does It Take?
Please note that the federal government is running budget deficits exceeding $1 trillion for four years running. That deficit is well beyond any stimulus the Fed could possibly provide.
Yet, the unemployment rate is still above 8 percent. Counted accurately, the unemployment rate is probably between 10 and 11 percent. Include part-time workers who want a full-time job and it is close to 20 percent.
Also note that Fed stimulus has goosed the stock market and commodities but done little if anything for the real economy.
Indeed, low interest rates have crucified savers on fixed income and will punish pension plans the moment equities take a turn for the worse.
'Sell the News' Event Coming Up?
There is no more good news to be had from more QE, except of course for those holding gold.
And while everyone is pouring over every word the Fed says as if there is any real meaning to the words "many members", should the Fed actually cut rates in September, I would expect the reaction to be a "sell the news" event.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock, a registered investment advisor representative at SitkaPacific, blogs at globaleconomicanalysis.com.