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Keynes Versus Friedman - and Mises Goes Missing
John Maynard Keynes (pictured left) versus Milton Friedman: the economics clash to end them all. It is not merely that the pair were both phenomenally intelligent, frequently caustic debaters; nor is it that they hail from such different backgrounds, one an Eton-educated Englishman, the other the Brooklyn-born son of Hungarian Jewish immigrants. The fact is that the two men stood for radically opposing doctrines. They represent the ideological battle underlying the economics of the past 50 years. Whereas Keynes paid more attention to unemployment than inflation, and warned that the economy could be improved by a certain amount of state interference, Friedman argued otherwise. In his seminal book A Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960, co-authored with Anna Schwartz, he set out the theories of monetarism. – Telegraph
Dominant Social Theme: Giant versus giant?
Free-Market Analysis: This is a very interesting recent analysis by the Telegraph because it focuses on Milton Friedman and John Maynard Keynes as the archetypical east and west of economics. It is written by Edmund Conway whose Boom and Bust article we reported on just the other day. We thought the Boom and Bust article was something of a mis-hit, skipping over the culpability of central banks for the financial crisis in favor of blasting something called "capitalism" – whatever that is these days.
In fact, any sane person can see clearly that if one conflates capitalism with free-markets, the conclusion must be that protecting free-markets have increasingly not been a great concern of Western leaders. The West is taxed too much and its institutions fix the price of money and already over-regulate even the simplest financial transactions. Western governments, and now the American government, are increasingly intertwined with the largest corporations leading to a kind of command and control economy more akin to failed Eastern financial systems.
In setting up Friedman in contrast to Keynes, Conway once again skips over the free-market part of his argument. We don't have any anything against Conway – actually his past few articles have been quite good from a mainstream press standpoint in that they tackle challenging subjects. But in producing such ambitious articles, Conway is inadvertently providing us with an example of the blind spots that mainstream media continues to harbor when it comes to economic analysis.
What Conway misses is that Milton Friedman is actually a kind of iconoclast and that the Chicago Freshwater school is a watered down version of real free-market economics – Austrian economics that got its start 200 years ago with the formulation of the theory of marginal utility (the idea that prices are endlessly fungible at the margins and only the marketplace itself can determine them at any given point).
One actually has to trace back the roots of an intellectual conversation to understand from whence it came and how it got where it was. If one does not perform this exercise one ends up with the kind of article that Conway has written. It presents Keynes, who partakes of a 5,000 year old tradition of socialism and dystopianism and contrasts his perspective with Friedman's whose professional life, admirable as it was, seems to have been spent presenting a watered down free-market apologia.
The real giant of the 20th century when it comes to free markets was undoubtedly Ludwig von Mises who helped elaborate on central bank generated business cycles. Friedman knew of this work of course but he chose not to promote it. Instead, he spent the latter portion of his professional life first blaming central banks for economic malfunctions and then proposing how to use the same flawed tools to rectify the difficulties. Contrast this approach with Austrian frankness which defines the problem in ways that are similar to Friedman but then with appropriate rigor concludes that the institution of central banking is hopelessly flawed because it is a kind of price fixing – and price fixing inevitably distorts and eventually ruins any economy it touches.
Here's some more from Conway on both Keynes and Friedman:
The fact is that the two men stood for radically opposing doctrines. They represent the ideological battle underlying the economics of the past 50 years. Whereas Keynes paid more attention to unemployment than inflation, and warned that the economy could be improved by a certain amount of state interference, Friedman argued otherwise. In his seminal book A Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960, co-authored with Anna Schwartz, he set out the theories of monetarism. "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon," Friedman said. In short, by pumping extra money into the system (as the Keynesians were prone to doing) governments would drive up inflation, risking major economic pain. Friedman believed that if central banks were charged with maintaining control of prices, most other aspects of the economy – unemployment, economic growth, productivity – would take care of themselves.
In reading this summary, we seem to detect a certain fuzziness as to the world "inflation." Friedman certainly understood that inflation was defined as an expansion in the supply of money (or money stuff in the case of paper bills). When Conway writes "By pumping extra money in the system, governments would drive up inflation" he seems to be using the word inflation two ways. What he may mean in the second instance is "price inflation" because the act of "pumping money" into the economy is the actual act of inflation from a classical perspective.
We also have trouble with the conclusion that Keynesian economics demanded state interference while Friedman's central banking approach did not. True, Friedman advocated a "steady state" central banking approach to the economy, but central banking itself is a monopoly manipulation of currency, no matter whether the price fixing takes place in public or private hands. Friedman's free-market sympathies seem to fail him when it comes to this most important Western institution.
Give Conway credit. This is a good mainstream article in that it courageously takes on important economic points not often discussed and attempts to contrast two very important philosophies. But in leaving out the development and stance of the real free market philosophy that developed over the past 200 years in order to emphasize Friedman, the article ends up contrasting economic thinkers who certainly had more in common than would seem at first glance. And unlike Friedman, Mises did not believe central banking was salvageable. As do other free-market thinkers, he looked to the invisible hand of nature to manage money as much as possible. (His advocacy of a gold standard is grist for another day.)
Conclusion: It is a little strange from our perspective to see Milton Friedman constantly being identified as a proponent of free markets. When it came to modern markets' fundamental building block, he proved to be a proponent of bank-managed money. The Austrians have long recognized the futility of trying to manage money by setting interest rates and other statist money nostrums. Austrians of various colors wish for the return of true free market money, gold and silver, within the context of a free-market money standard. And truly, these days, there is little excuse not to notice the Austrians. Google Ludwig von Mises and you will find nearly as many mentions if not more than John Maynard Keynes – thanks to the Internet, truth is spreading.
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Posted by Dan on 09/09/09 11:43 PM
"To some economists that will be a reason to cling to neoclassicism, despite its utter failure to make sense of the greatest economic crisis in three generations"
I read all of them spouting all kinds of irrelevant explanations. Hopeless !!
"Job losses within the United States in the current downturn are steeper than in any previous recession, even though the output decline is only equivalent to those of 1973-75 and 1981-82."
What does that say about PERSONAL production? Fewer people needed to produce almost the same amount of goods.
"Unemployment Rate for College Graduates Highest on Record."
A loss of job niches, especially for those not directly producing.
Bill Bonner;
"So to me the Keynesian idea is not only flawed mechanistically, it's flawed in a moral way.
Keynesians; they are manipulators. The free market economists - the original economist Adam Smith and Adam Ferguson - were not manipulators. They called themselves moral philosophers. Adam Ferguson studied colonies of bees and he compared them to humans from a philosophical and moral point of view."
I admit to not being familiar with these 2 economists.
From the UK;
-Two million children now in homes with no working adult
-Nearly one in five households surviving on benefits
-Half a million more people living in workless homes"
-one in four households in London are without a wage earner"
One can hardly read these numbers without doing a mental projection of where this leads. The dole results in personal stagnation, alcoholism, poor health, etc. We divorced ourselves from nature to join the industrial society. The industrial society has now found us redundant. The corporatocracy doesn't care if we have a meaningful life.
Indians on the reservation are a good example of existence without meaning. Gerald Celente expects 25% unemployment, So does the Mises school,,, I believe. We need to somehow, collectively, find a way to take "extra" people and give meaning to their lives. How does one give self-esteem to people with no center?
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks for the feedback.
Posted by Dan on 09/06/09 05:40 PM
Eugenics is of paramount importance in dogs and horses but, verboten for man. I wouldn't dream of suggesting it here. Man, as a species is in his adolescence. He has newly found strengths but, lacks character and self-discipline. Look at lottery winners or child stars.
Give $5 million to 1,000 people and see how many turn hedonistic or self-destructive. [Google "hedweb"] How many of these 1,000 people will concentrate on improving themselves and the lot of their species? Power corrupts and attracts the already-corrupted. Almost by definition, we're going to have scoundrels for leaders. This lovely role-model permeates through society.
Why do people marvel at Ron Paul? Is altruism so overwhelmingly rare in powerful people? Imagine a unicameral legislative body dedicated to the betterment of mankind. If this seems so TOTALLY out of the range of possibility, it is because we've become resigned to scoundrels.
The world is operating on an outmoded Modus Operandi. Greed always sat at the head of the table. Runaway population required constant warfare. Germany has a shrinking population. Are they going to go to war for "living space"? Same with Japan. True, only SOME of the dynamics have changed.
We still war for raw materials. But, war has gotten unbelievably expensive. China is going to bury us by proving that war is inefficient from a business standpoint.
Our dunderheads spend more to steal the oil than it would have cost to buy it. Capitalism hates inefficiency. China uses state credit to destroy our system of usury by out-competing. China uses diplomacy to secure natural resources rather than war.
We've burned ourselves out trying to compete with an inefficient business model. The sons of Sun-Tzu know just what they're doing. The sons of Keynes are going to get buried. They're holding smelling salts under the corpse of Keynes but ... he gives no more advice.
There is no cure for "too much free time" When the machines cater to our every wish, we'll have the opportunity to self-immolate in hedonism.
The machine age has produced so much paper wealth that it can never be redeemed for goods and services. The banks try to pull goods and services out of the future to vitiate their paper.
Suppose that those future goods are all produced by machines. If the producer is redundant, how can he be a consumer?
Capitalism ONLY shares it's wealth with producers. There is no mechanism, other than socialism that doles out wealth to non-producers. Socialism rots the minds of non-producers. They may survive but ... what is life with no career, no self-worth ... a pointless, non-productive life
The machines could do everything for us. Then, we would be free to study, read, meditate, paint, write, or guzzle beer and watch the telly. I have no solution ... sorry.
Reply from The Daily Bell
Sorry to hear it. Interesting take, even without a solution. Thanks for the follow.
Posted by Dan on 09/06/09 04:26 PM
Marx, for all his supposed intelligence blatantly ignore anything that he couldn't put down on paper. Motivation, satisfaction, happiness and INCENTIVE. Socialism is poison to incentive. I'd been in the CCCP long before the wall came down. Their lethargy and alcoholism are legendary.
I would never espouse the Luddites either. Sure, the Amish have a nice pastoral society. Progress waits for no man. One either joins the rat race or is absorbed by it. Feudal Japan was a good example of trying to keep progress at bay.
The march of technological society will not stop trying to improve technology. It may someday try to improve the human condition. Anything is possible.
Wealth is created out of earth, sun and sky by increasingly sophisticated machines [leaving out intellectual property]. More and more of these machines are becoming autonomous [GPS]. The Japanese have just demonstrated an impressively dexterous mechanical hand. This hand, coupled with artificial intelligence will eliminate that many more niches.
Capitalism, in it's ruthless quest for efficiency tries to eliminate labor. In so doing, it eliminates it's potential pool of prospective customers. The world has far too much productive capacity,,, far too automated. Our productive capacity MUST produce to offset our imports. A service economy just swooshes it around.
If our producers are automated and our consumers are unemployed, our markets won't function in the long run. We'll have a net capital outflow.
We can paper over it with ... paper but, only for a limited time.
Reply from The Daily Bell
What do you propose? Government plans? Free-market solutions? Intriguing points to be sure.
Posted by Dan on 09/06/09 02:54 PM
If wealth is not distributed to them, destitution and crime go way up. If wealth is distributed to them, the "reservation" or "Ghetto" mentality drives them to alcohol. You might not like the idea of "extra people" but can you deny it?
The US employed everybody with borrowed money. With an economy commensurate with our production and markets, commensurate with our rate of automation, there will be very few jobs. Japan is going into their 3rd decade. Markets are the key.
50% of the cost of an object is for finance. 25 % is for taxes. So, we have 75% parasitism on top of production costs. When do you expect us to be competitive with an automatic 300 % markup?
Reply from The Daily Bell
A Marxist/Luddite analysis?
Posted by WETSUN@aol.com on 09/05/09 09:23 PM
Other countries in the world welcome you, If You Have Funds. The U.S. Welcomes You if you're flat ass broke and expect the three hunderd million or so to Prosper. What a joke on the so called poor, they'll be spending a bigger percentage of their meager incomes to eat than that small Political Upper Crust like Pelosi who tagged the tax payers with a multi million dollar plane to ride back and forth in to San Francisco.
Let those securing security over independence pay the bill, they deserve it. It's way past time to Stop Government Hand Outs to loafers. Well, you asked for my opinion. There it is, but in a very truncated form. Want more?
1. Repeal the 16th Amendment. No progress can be made unless it's done.
2. Repeal the 17th Amendment. Stop representatives retiring in Washington DC at the Public Trough. Two terms or even better, One.
3. Bring back the Monroe Doctrine. It works. Free Trade? Of Course, but militarily you stay out of our hemisphere and we'll stay out of yours.
4. Throw the U.N. and trash Out of the U.S. and get U.S. Out of U.N.
5. Illegals either go home or try them as spys by the military with the consequences of being guilty.
Reply from The Daily Bell
Interesting points.
Posted by Sam Fox on 09/05/09 03:29 PM
Oh, that isn't what we're reading?
No, of course not. Don't go there because you won't end up smelling very well.
Government: To intervene or not to intervene; that is the question.
Stealing money is a crime. Thieves need some serious "intervention." They need to have all their assets drained to make up what restitution can be gotten without lining the pockets of the attorneys involved. That's appropriate government intervention. We don't need bail-out money. I somehow connect bail with people accused of crimes. Our only crime was trusting our "leaders." And who is the government bailing out? Oh, of course, the criminals.
Sorry, venting doesn't usually accomplish anything, but . . . .
seriously, balance sheets need balancing and not fifteen years down the road. The thieves need to not only be punished, but deprived of all their assets if need to be restore to victims as much as possible. I know much of what was stolen was spent or so devalued that little is there. But whatever is there needs to be disbursed among those who were robbed.
Accountability issues have been made so complicated with layers and layers of this, that, and the other, that we lose track of the simplicity of real integrity. At the heart--at the root of the vast majority of the issue is a faulty worldview. It is amazing how simple things can become when God is recognized--not as some religious idea, but as Creator and Lawgiver and Judge. Many things lose their fuzziness and clarity prevails. Personal judgments become understandable without subterfuge and actually temptation even lessens.
The role of banking systems don't have to be nearly as complicated. However, we are in so deep because of radically irrational rationalizations of the past and the present that there doesn't seem to be any way out, certainly no easy way out.
What if...watch out now...this is going to come off radically irrational to most people's thinking--what if we took the ancient Hebrew scriptures concept of Jubilee seriously?
I know....
It's just a thought.
If we would stay with something simple--like the ten commandments; if we would call upon the government to punish the evildoers;
Reply from The Daily Bell
It seems difficult for government to address these sorts of issues,
Posted by Bob on 09/05/09 01:29 PM
700,000,000,000/300,000,000=2333
It is difficult to keep track of all the zeros.
Reply from The Daily Bell
Yes, but the administrations is apparently releasing individual checks to the tune of US$200 per person, unless vp Biden misspoke. The larger stimulus amounts have likely hardly been issued yet.
Posted by Ingo Bischoff on 09/05/09 01:14 PM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Well put, Mr. Bischoff. Presumably the market could do the job.
Posted by Georgia on 09/05/09 11:23 AM
I am a housewife, the mother of five children whom all are raised, and one who knows that if I handled my finances the way the government is now handling my money, I would be in paupers prison if there was such a place! I have to balance my check book, and I know I can't spend more than I make or borrow more than I am capable of paying back! The math is simple and uncomplicated for me to stay out of debt, and remain responsible for my spending! Income cannot be less than the demands for payment!
The problem with Central Banking is using it for personal gain and not for stabilizing the monetary system.
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks, Georgia. Maybe it is not possible to stabilize the system with such banking?
Posted by Larry Fields on 09/05/09 05:27 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
They don't seem to.
Posted by John Wiggin on 09/05/09 03:26 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Apparently.

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