News & Analysis
U.S. Fed Rigs Stock Market
The unusual circumstances that led the U.S. market to rally powerfully in 2009 might be explained by secret government moves to buy stocks, according to Charles Biderman, the founder and chief executive of TrimTabs, a research firm that tracks liquidity flows in the market. "We cannot identify the source of the new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast," Biderman said in a statement Tuesday. The source of approximately $600 billion net new cash necessary to lift the market's overall capitalization by $6 trillion last year could not be identified by TrimTabs, Biderman said. The money, he said, didn't come from traditional players such as companies, retail investors, foreign investors, hedge funds or pension funds. "We know that the U.S. government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to support the auto industry, the housing market, and the banks and brokers. Why not support the stock market as well?" The Federal Reserve or the Treasury, Biderman said, could have easily manipulated the stock market by purchasing $60 to $70 billion worth of futures of the S&P 500 Index (SPX 1,140, -1.20, -0.11%) on a monthly basis. – WSJ MarketWatch
Dominant Social Theme: More conspiracy theories!
Free-Market Analysis: So now the whispers about government intervention into the world's largest stock market have reached the point where the mainstream press is writing about them. Way back in 1987, during the Crash, it was common knowledge – or at least a common rumor – that Alan Greenspan had demanded that commercial banks buy stocks directly to help stabilize the market, and had provided funds for that purpose.
The Plunge Protection Team set up back then still exists today and there are plenty of rumors swirling about its activities on a regular basis. You would think the US government would have disbanded a group with such a provocative name, but perhaps the idea is to signal to the markets that the US government will ultimately stand behind the stock market. If so, the Feds are creating the largest moral hazard ever – and we have no doubt that the brainiacs in DC wouldn't think twice about it.
In fact the way the stock market has come back from the virtual ruination of the fiat money system gives rise to the idea that there is already some level of moral hazard at work. We've gone from a situation where the entire Western central-banking-based economy was flat on its back and on life-support to what many financiers and regulators would like to characterize as business as usual. Here's some more from the article:
"The idea that this is magic is nonsense," said Barry Ritholtz, market strategist at Fusion IQ and a market veteran. "This was a normal behavior in a recessionary bear market. We saw the Dow plunge 5,000 points in 6 months, which had never happened before and created a dramatically oversold market."
Yes, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero and Congress allowed banks to keep their bad loans off their books, allowing them to pretend they were solvent, he said.
But "you can't short stocks when the Fed is at zero," Ritholtz said. "Our own institutional clients came on board" as did other big institutional investors, he said.
Conspiracy theories about the so-called "plunge protection team," or PPT, have been on the rise ever since the U.S. government started to bail out financial institutions in late 2008 under the administration of then-President George W. Bush, according to Dan Greenhaus, market strategist at Miller Tabak.
The PPT is a nickname given by some to a group established by President Ronald Reagan in 1988 after the 1987 stock crash to coordinate governmental response to market meltdowns.
Noting that the Fed has been buying Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to keep interest rates low and support the economy, even firms such as Sprott Asset Management have started to accuse the U.S. government of running a Ponzi scheme.
"There's a lot of backlash against the government right now and the hate for the Fed has gone into overdrive" in some corners, Greenhaus said. "The fact that the government stepped into the abyss [angered] a lot of people, and the fact that things are better a year later flies in the face of some long-held beliefs about free markets."
Notice, the article making its way back to free-market arguments in order to rebut the idea that economies can be entirely free-market based. The idea being put forth by government apologists these days is that the Western governments with their activism salvaged Western economies and that these economies are irretrievably mixed.
However, the reality in our opinion is a good deal more complex. True, the American stock market is the furthest advanced when it comes to public participation but this participation has come as the result of a determined effort on the part of the power elite. European markets, even British markets, have remained resolutely in the hands of the professional classes but in America, the buying public for stocks has been broad and deep. It is the public participation in this supposedly free-market environment that the American government seeks to sustain.
It wasn't always so. Until the Civil War, or War Between the States, there was no great public participation in stock markets which were often auction based and traded once or twice a day. But after the war, in America anyway, power consolidated in the hands of Northern banks and New York City (and the NYSE) began building the kind of stock market that we know today.
It is no coincidence that stock trading for the masses began to build after the war – for it takes a good deal of manipulation and order-flow concentration to create the kind of critical mass that created the building blocks for the modern stock market in the late 1800s. The market staggered in 1907 and then crashed in 1929. It took a concerted effort by the NYSE to re-involve the consumer in the market after the Second World War. The effort was quite deliberate, and of a piece with the rest of the efforts by Wall Street to involve the American consumer in the stock market.
The stock market was never what it was portrayed to be. It was always a manipulated entity, prone to booms and busts that correlated to the monetary inflation of central banking itself. In fact, one could make the argument that the modern American stock market is a product of the Federal Reserve. Without the great waves of greed that are generated by monetary stimulation – the great buying booms that give rise to slews of instant millionaires – the American stock market would not have the fascination it does.
And yet, with the advent of the Internet and the ability of the average consumer to see behind the curtain, one wonders if the "dream time" of the 20th century monetary stimulation will continue to exist. More and more the Misesian model of boom/bust hyper-stimulation seems valid and the buy-and-hold and technocratic/graphical number-crunching strategies that have long been propounded for the masses seem out-of-date and even beside-the-point.
In this environment comes the last gasp of this particular promotion. What promotion is that? Anyone-can-be-a-millionaire-through-proper-stock-investing. This is another key item in the power elite promotional arsenal. It is not enough of course to distort the employment economy and make one's job dependent on monetary stimulation. The idea has been to involve individuals in the stock market in such a way as to involve the average American in the full spectrum of central banking monetary inflation. As we pointed out just yesterday, much employment in America and Europe is stitched to central banking booms and busts.
The idea of the stock market promotion is to capture citizens' free-income and savings as well – and make it subject to the same monetary inflation. Ideally, bands of investors will spend their evenings discussing central banking monetary policy and speculating on currency flows. In fact, this kind of buy-in took place in the 20th century when American media was filled with letters to the editor speculating learnedly on Federal Reserve monetary policy. Today, feedback pages remain clogged with speculations about the Fed – but the sentiment has turned markedly (rancerous), and not for the better from the point of view of the powers-that-be.
We don't know if the American FedGov has been intervening aggressively in the markets to push the stock averages up. We do know that public participation the stock markets is a power-elite gauge of the buy-in that the public has with the system. And thus if one looks at any queue in any major mainstream publication that allows feedbacks, the observation one comes away with is of a screaming frustration. Never in the modern history of the republic (or so it would seem) has there been such a growing disconnect between the citizens and the democratic process – and this is on both sides of the aisle, Republicans and Democrats. Within this context, purported federal manipulation of the stock market becomes merely one more element of controversy and distrust.
Conclusion: When the painfully erected promotional supports of the modern Western state (especially in America) are coming into this much disrepute, the power elite has a lot more to worry about than the degradation of its stock-market promotion. It ought to be worried about the legitimacy of its larger operation. From global warming, to mass vaccination to fiat money, people are turning away from fear-based promotions. We think this is one reason why gold and silver have run up and have further to go. We think this is why we may even see a reversion to a private gold-and-silver standard during our lifetimes.
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Posted by Dee on 10/06/10 02:59 AM
Wanting growth by any means instead of being happy with profits. Many of today's executives of public companies strive for growth by any means with the excuse of having to do things to the benefit of the investor. They typically grow by producing a cheapened product that looks nice, overcharging customers, not paying employees fair wages based on the cost of things. Many are able to do it because they are either a monopoly or part of an oligopoly (by way of acquisitions for example) and have the government protecting them (either by bogus patents, huge regulations and cost for startups, lawsuits against those wanting to enter the field, etc..). They then reward themselves of this behavior by huge salaries and/or bonuses and create a wage gap where large amounts of money go to small well-to-do groups whereas your average american doesn't get much of anything except higher prices. Eventually these companies will be run into the ground (take a look at Microsoft for example, $250 for an OS that should be selling for $50, and people wonder why MS isn't growing, they can't be happy with 10B in profits a year).
So all this dissatisfaction by workers, who are also customers that don't make enough to purchase the overpriced items they want to buy, brings rise to labor unions, special interest groups, lawsuits, higher taxes, and political power. Of course all these are destructive to americas way of life for the average american. Labor union workers and their pensions are way out of line and causing even greater inflation and high cost of items to the determent of average american workers who may then seek to join a labor union themselves.
It's all a viscous cycle that needs to end by way of DEFLATION. By that I mean bringing prices down in line to what average workers make. This can be done several ways:
1) Executives with a conscience can cut their salaries down to make 2 to 4 times the average worker salary instead of 200 times.
2) Getting rid of regulations and the ease of bringing about bogus lawsuits so people who feel their company doesn't value them can go out and create their own company to compete without being drained of cash before getting their feet on the ground. You'll end up with better products and lower prices with people who will have the customer and employees at heart and be happy with making a profit.
3) Get rid of labor unions. By allowing there to be more competition with smaller companies with better people producing better products at a lower cost, labor unions will have no place (they will just disappear) provided politicians and governments don't only reward contracts to companies with labor unions due to all the red-tape.
4) Get rid of lawyers who are sue happy. Disbar lawyers who bring frivolous lawsuits and change the requirements of class action lawsuits so that people don't only get 50 cents and lawyers millions. The legal cost of companies can be brought way down.
Some additional things that should be done now are:
1) Raise interest rates to at least 2.5%. All the people and companies who do things right and have cash should be able to make money (that they then spend) and not forced into gambling in markets (especially retired). The fed / government is basically playing games by waning to force people to risk their money.
2) Get rid of income based tax and move to something like a fair tax so people have more money to spend, save or invest while catching under the table and currently illegally obtained money.
Basically the answer to all the economic problems of today can be done by real capitalism and not greed. You can still have companies to invest in where investors should be happy that a company has profits and not be greedy wanting them to start the whole cycle over.
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks for your thoughtful analysis.
Posted by Bill Denman on 01/13/10 12:08 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks for the feedback.
Posted by Gernot Hassenpflug on 01/12/10 08:36 PM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks for the info.
Posted by Bill Denman on 01/12/10 02:08 PM
The Federal Reserve has succeeded in getting Americans into debt up to their eyeballs -- who owns the liens against their property? Of course the money used to fund this debt is simply numbers in books created out of thin air by the banks. The American people are the victims of the biggest fraud in history.
If the Treasury is intervening, where does it get the money to do so? -- From the Federal Reserve. If you want documented proof of that, see my article "Converting from Paper to Gold and Silver", it contains details about money creation that come directly from a book authored by the Board of Governors of the FED.
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks. Where is your article? Link?
Posted by Terry Moore on 01/11/10 06:19 PM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks for the kind words, and for reading.
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Posted by Iddy on 01/11/10 05:36 PM
I always learned this to be some deroggatory thing but even after examining this it seems like they dont like the left or right but more they seem to want to not eliminate classes in soceity but bring them together.I can see this for I have no trouble seeing classes and find myself in one actualy somwhere between the top (if there is one) and the bottom (if ther is one). Overall it is very interesting to me .So Thanks for your pointed and clear remarks.
Reply from The Daily Bell
Fascism is another version of state control. You do not want to be a fascist. You obviously believe in freedom, therefore you are probably a libertarian. Look up the definition of fascist. Just because Ezra Pound worked for fascists doesn't mean you have to adopt his sentiments in that regard.
The reason for our comparison of you to Ezra Pound is that you were writing in a doggerel style that was far below your intellect. You were misspelling words and misusing words on purpose and coming across as ignorant when you are not. That is famously what Ezra Pound used to do when he wanted to talk down to people about his financial theories. He would adopt the persona of a country hick. He would write as if he were a country hick rather than a world class poet.
Now you are writing more normally, in a normal voice, though you still misspell some words. But it is much better. It sounds sincere, not put on. ... So thank you. And thanks for reading.
Just coincidentally, Ezra Pound, who was a genius, had figured out a lot about monetary theory though he tended to blame "Jews" for the problems of the world, which attracted him to Mussolini and Hitler.
He became a radio broadcaster for Mussolini and after the war was declared insane. He was not insane. He was a great poet and a fine amateur economist in a certain sense. He was wrong to blame the economic mess on Jews, alone, but that was the fashion in his time.
Hope that helps. You can find out more about him on Wikipedia. He is very well known. Thanks for writing normally as you have plenty of good ideas and are very smart, in our opinion, when you are not trying to sound dumb.
Posted by C. Del Signore on 01/11/10 11:52 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks for the input.
Posted by Dean Kavouras on 01/11/10 11:13 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
One could make all sorts of conjectures ...
Posted by Denny Jackson on 01/11/10 10:58 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
We will keep "poking."
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Posted by Iddy on 01/11/10 09:36 AM
These assets do not show up on budget reports. If you look at the total gevernment holdings Federal, state local county city and town. This figure is in the trillions.Yes everyone can be a millionair these days.Hundreds of trading rooms and teachers are around. All one needs to do is get on board and go for the ride. Only one thing I can see wrong with this whole thing. Increase, there is no increase only inflating.Now if the whole world ends up trading the markets who will be left to do actual work?This presents a problem. We cant let everyone on board. So now via edutainment and other vehicles we must program society and regulate ,compartmentalize .
We need to have selective breeding so we can create people to pick up the trash and build houses. Fix cars and refrigerators. We need population control we only need so many workers for each compartment. Now never fear cuz eventualy the really smart guys will invent robots to do the work.Ahh the future is bright.
Sure it will take some time we have alot of work to do We need to militarize the globe with a global police force. Break down these pesky old school Nationalists. For the Gold Bugs these guys are a real fly in the oinment. You can now sell your "scrap gold" as some call it for paper. Watch the chart new highs low volume, The big guys are all in ,the small spec is lured in close to the top.
Then watch for the unwind ,the sell off. Many smart men have been calling tops for a couple months. But there is some who do not need to be smart becuase they are owners. Government owns it all by investment.for an interesting look at this "theory" of mine look at Click to view linkThank You and God have Mercy on us all.P.S. HE does and will.
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks for the lucid and entertaining post, sans the Ezra Pound effects.
Posted by Ken on 01/11/10 09:34 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Another promotion - fear-based in fact ...
Posted by Gul on 01/11/10 08:39 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks for the feedback.
Posted by J. Mulen on 01/11/10 07:24 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
The Internet is a problem ...
Posted by Floyd on 01/11/10 07:15 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Could be the Treasury as well ...
Posted by Gregory Barros on 01/11/10 06:15 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Could be Treasury, one supposes. The Fed is more likely.
Posted by Michael Ponzani on 01/11/10 05:25 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Wasn't aware.
Posted by Victor Heddins on 01/11/10 04:51 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
The market as a promotion?
Posted by David Peterson on 01/11/10 04:33 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Agreed.
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Posted by Pat Fields on 01/11/10 03:49 AM
On the opinion lists I read, there is a growing curiousity as to what steps can be taken to circumvent bankscrip with private local copper coinage and serious consideration of tax revolt in addition to ballot measures!
I agree that silver and gold are destined for explosive accumulation efforts far beyond the ability of the COMEX and ETF feints to continue to assuage.
Reply from The Daily Bell
Yes, times are changing fast.
Posted by Rebecca Iocca on 01/11/10 03:36 AM
Reply from The Daily Bell
Thanks for the feedback.






