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The Desperation of Quantitative Easing

Thursday, March 11, 2010 – by Staff Report

"Quantitative easing (QE)" is an ugly name for an important task: the need to make monetary policy effective when interest rates are close to zero. The world's leading central banks, including the Bank of England, have taken such actions. But is UK policy working? Yes, but not quite enough. The argument about quantitative easing is polarized: some critics wail about inflationary "money printing"; others complain that too little attention is paid to the flow of credit. Of the two camps, the latter is the more persuasive. At its simplest, as Charles Bean, the Bank's deputy governor, has explained, the Bank uses newly created money to purchase assets. Hitherto, the UK's QE has amounted to £200bn ($274bn), mainly used to purchase government bonds. The new money, in turn, ends up as bank reserves at the Bank. ... As Mr. Wilkes also argues, in today's exceptional circumstances, the Bank could usefully buttress its inflation target with a medium-term objective for nominal demand. Then, if QE has to be restarted, the Bank could use such a framework to explain why. Desperate times need desperate measures. The times are not over. Nor, therefore, are the measures. – Financial Times

Dominant Social Theme: It's a really good idea and it works.

Free-Market Analysis: This editorial in the Financial Times from March 7, 2010, excerpted above, is a tiny little yelp from the power elite, in our opinion. Maybe, just maybe, the ruckus over so much central bank money printing is beginning to reach the ears of those who actually create the money – even in the rarified heights of British high finance. Here's the telling phrase: "The argument about quantitative easing is polarized: some critics wail about inflationary 'money printing'; others complain that too little attention is paid to the flow of credit."

The critics who rail about "money printing" are actually those who use free-market Austrian analysis of the type for which economist FA Hayek won a "Nobel" prize. The point of the article, so far as we can tell, is to promote the idea that quantitative easing helps bolster credit liquidity. Of course this is a non-sequitur in terms of answering the argument as to whether or not injecting massive amounts of fiat money into the West's (Britain's) financial system eventually creates massive price inflation. History seems to show that it does.

The Financial Times fears "desperate times" and states "the times are not over." It seems to us, in fact, that this is actually a fairly strong statement in defense of quantitative easing. It is also noteworthy for another reason. It seems to indicate a certain level of defensiveness by a main mouthpiece of the British banking establishment.

That the Financial Times would seek to defend quantitative easing in an apparently unsigned editorial is a remarkable event from our point of view. Only a few decades ago the phrase might have been used, but the idea that such a policy would ever become controversial would likely have seemed far-fetched. But almost everything concerned with central banking these days attracts argument. The Financial Times is not alone in noticing it. Policymakers at the Bank of England seem to be backing away from QE as fast as they can, claiming that more stimulus will not be needed. Here's an excerpt from a recent Dow Jones newswire post:

Bank of England policymakers hope they won't have to add more stimulus to get the U.K. economy back on track, assuming there aren't any further shocks, Monetary Policy Committee member Adam Posen said Tuesday. Speaking on Sky television, Posen said if an additional boost were necessary, an extension of the BOE's quantitative easing asset buying program would be the most likely outcome, but it would depend on the nature of the problem.

The BOE launched the policy, through which it has bought GBP200 billion in mostly U.K. government bonds with freshly created central bank money, last March, having slashed its key interest rate to an all-time low of 0.5%. "We hope we've done it," Posen said, when asked whether the MPC would need to extend the program. If inflation and output growth follow the path the MPC has projected, "in that case, there's no need for more QE. It's if something negative happens to the economy again, then we may have to do something," he said.

Reading between the lines on all of this mainstream media commentary – something we try to do – it would seem that central bankers in Britain anyway are starting to feel the pressure. It is not enough to screw interest rates to zero; now one must inject cash directly into the coffers of the world's largest financial entities to ensure their solvency, or so the logic goes. And people just are not buying it anymore.

Central banks have been propping up their distribution networks (money center banks, etc.) for two years now and justifying their money-printing ways by claiming that without such cash injections the system will collapse bringing untold misery. Yet there is ALREADY enough misery to go around. Unemployment in the West is bad and getting worse. More sovereign defaults threaten. The European Union is struggling to hold itself together by floating a European version of the UN's IMF. The Great Unraveling proceeds apace.

What British policymakers – and their media mouthpieces – are apparently doing when it comes to monetary policy is twofold. On the one hand, they are continuing to position QE as a necessary evil with redeeming qualities that outweigh the risk of price inflation. On the other hand, they are claiming as Posen does, that more QE may not be necessary as it has done its job.

Here's how long-time financial commentator, Don Lowery, recently summed up the effects that QE has on the economy in a column titled, A New Definition of War:

Depreciation of the currency is direct war on all dollar holders worldwide. No toy soldiers, no guns, no tanks, no budgets, no charges of crime, no fear of the press, no public outcry. The fox is in charge of the henhouse but the hens are unaware. In fact they are unaware that they are unaware.

O, the foxes, they don't talk about printing money, they call it "quantitative easing." They are "easing" millions of people into poverty.

This final world war will leave millions and millions destitute and in poverty. All but the few still won't know what happened.

Is there anybody out there who doesn't know that if you keep pouring water in the milk, you finally have all water?

This is how fiat finally destroys all savings and purchasing power. All that is necessary is to keep printing new money and call it "quantitative easing." The more paper money spewed out the more worthless each one of those paper dollars in your pocket or your mattress, or your "bank account," or your retirement funds. What do we call this, a cruel hoax?

Yes, the modern alchemists have taken nothing, multiplied to infinity and with it transferred to themselves the wealth of the world.

These are not incidental statements, nor extraneous editorials. The elite doesn't waste time or energy when it comes to such things. We figure there is increased worry at the top that the system is going to come under another sustained attack and that MORE money printing –and other equally dramatic measures – will be necessary to bail out not just private concerns but whole countries. Once every 50 or 100 years in a fiat-money mercantilist/central banking economy monetary distortions become so bad that the whole system begins to fall apart. We increasingly believe this is such a time. If it is, all the money printing in the world will not prevent it.

Conclusion: Of course the power elite that stands behind the West's central banking regime will continue to try. They will pour as much money into the system as they believe they have to. The trouble the elite foresees, and we see it too, is that patience is just about gone for such maneuvers. Thanks especially to the Internet, people see what's going on and they are finding it increasingly unfair. What is the elite to do if people do not believe anymore in central banking – and by extension the mercantilist money system that has been built up over this past century? This is a grave problem and it is one that is giving rise to the quiet, little yelps that we have documented today. In our opinion, investors should pay attention to such small noises as they often presage bigger explosions to come.




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  Posted by Will Cooper on 03/11/10 10:59 PM

"Depreciation of the currency is direct war on all dollar holders worldwide.... This final world war will leave millions and millions destitute and in poverty.... This is how fiat finally destroys all savings and purchasing power."

Hear, hear! May I make this personal? It says in Conclusion that the populace is becoming skeptical of central banking. That's too broad. Picture yourself with annual income $35000. You are just starting out in your career, and despite seeing the spendthrift ways of your community (US savings rate went negative over the last 8 years for a time), you were prudent, and managed to sock away 10 and more of your income for the last decade, arriving in this rec(dep)ression with savings of between 1 and 2 years earnings, plus a start at a 401K plan. The system has defaults up the yazoo, and needs cash bad, to balance the books.

Without anticipating it, your own under-consumption during a (supposed) boom has put you in the cat-bird's seat, right? You have savings when the majority do not. The banks need liquidity to weather the default storm. A system with a relatively static monetary base would be rewarding the savers with higher interest rates, in order to attract their prudent savings, achieved through under-consumption, no? In steps the central bank to provide hurting lenders with liquidity out of thin air. No cost. Lending it to them at negative terms. What has happened to your cat-bird's seat, oh dear prudent saver? Hah, there's the rub, you've been crowded out of the system by a counterfeiter.

Your prudent savings are no longer needed by the hard-up banks. QE, achieved with no labor, is crowding out REAL SAVINGS, which often were achieved through severe hardship. The losers are the savers. The winners are the lenders. Well, the bigger lenders.

You want your savings to keep up with COL? Invest in stocks or something, that's safe -- hasn't gone anywhere in 10 years. Why does this system expect people who slave to save $5K per year to invest their cache, at risk of loss, just to break even? When a morally just system would reward savers during lean times with higher rates, at lesser (or no) risk. That is the perspective of the populace of savers. I may have read about fractional reserves, and the moral hazard thereof, but I like my banker. I think my banker likes me. We're all good people.

The villain in the dark corner is the central bank that offers free funds to my banker, precluding him from offering me a higher safe rate on my savings. I don't blame my banker, I just get desperate at the higher cost of everything and think I ought to have all my savings in the market. This actually does me no good. I blame the market. The news outlets confirm my paranoia of free markets.

All the while, I could have profited from my savings, had it not been for the hidden man bidding against me, with his counterfeit savings. That's the story that the millions of little savers like me need to hear. It tells us why we are not getting a fair value for our under-consumption, which this over-extended financial system needs. Savers don't think about fractional reserves, because we are not looking to borrow. We want value for the savings we have when others do not.

  Posted by Bruce on 03/11/10 04:21 PM

Here is a link I think you will find very interesting and informative. Click to view link

Reply from The Daily Bell

Thanks.

  Posted by Clayton Smith on 03/11/10 01:31 PM

Most import commentary.

More lipstick on the old pig, Funny Money. You can hear the well connected oinking away down at the trough, demanding that the rest of us keep it filled with privileges. And such rhetoric! The folks at the various Treasuries have all gone to speaking in "Greenspanese."

What a remarkably high sounding way they have discovered to describe picking our pockets. As we dissemble along down this path, of course ruin awaits us. To the ignorant the road will end in shock, anger, hatefulness, revenge seeking. It is likely to produce a bumper crop of demigods, who will find financing from those who created the mess in the first place, eager to see the blame placed elsewhere.

Those of us who saw it coming will experience that deep sorrow and regretfulness that arises from knowing how completely avoidable the whole catastrophe was. But we will have to be very careful that our superior knowledge is not held against us.

So we must have some solutions in hand when that time comes. Beyond economic understanding, we will have to have political solutions as well. Additionally, we will have to have individuals who are prepared to implement those solutions. If not, a Dark Age is coming next and the person who wishes to retain their sanity and dignity should be planning to live a monkish life.

  Posted by Philip Mccormack on 03/11/10 09:50 AM

Charles Bean B of E deputy uses newly created 'money' to purchase assets-what assets he doesn't tell us. The bank creates bonds and Treasury Bills and predictably bond speculators (Banks) included take risk free profits at the taxpayers expense-once again. Interest rates fall followed by the indiscriminate destruction of CAPITAL (never mentioned) in both the productive and financial sectors.

The B of E, Fed want the printed money to go to the commodity market hoping prices will be bid up. It doesn't happen-once the fiat money is created the central banks no longer have control of where it goes, and they know this.

Why not get the central banks to buy bonds directly from the Treasury? Because it would be even more obvious, that the pound and the dollar are being degraded from irredeemable currency to completely 'Fiat" currency and the check-kiting system still hidden from the gullible public, would perhaps be completely exposed, I wish.

This of course is destroying the savings and assets of the productive classes, the middles classes and the rest of the working classes as well as causing the bureaucratic bodies to use every tax extraction method known to man.

  Posted by Chuck Dahmer on 03/11/10 03:56 AM

The power elite are merely trying to justify their existence. "We have to do something, otherwise it will become REALLY bad." It's as lame as George Bush claiming that America was safer after passing the Patriot Act because no one flew more airliners into buildings.

When the self-serving media constantly trumpet the need for credit so that businesses can function, it's hard to get the average person's attention long enough to explain that CAPITAL, not credit, is what's needed.Credit is not capital. Debt is not real money. Not understanding these simple truths always ends badly for the little guys who unwittingly support the notion.