Forecasting the Future and Winning Liberty
By Richard Ebeling - December 30, 2014

As a new year begins, it is easy to consider that the prospects for freedom in America and in many other parts of the world seem dim. After all, government continues to grow bigger and more intrusive, along with tax burdens that siphon off vast amounts of private wealth.

Extrapolating these trends out for the foreseeable future, it would seem that the chances for winning liberty are highly unlikely. There is only one problem with this pessimistic forecast: The future is unpredictable and apparent trends do change.

Many years ago the famous philosopher of science Karl Popper pointed out, "If there is such a thing as growing human knowledge, then we cannot anticipate today what we shall only know tomorrow." What does this mean?

When I was in high school in the 1960s, I came across an issue of Popular Science magazine published in the early 1950s that was devoted to predicting what life would be like for the average American family in the 1970s. It has a picture of a wife and child standing on an apartment building roof waving good-bye to dad as he went off to work—in his one-seat mini-helicopter!

Inside, as best as I can recall, the authors talked about such things as color televisions, various new household appliances, robots that would do much of our household work and the use of jet planes for commercial travel. What was not mentioned, however, was the personal computer or the revolution in communication, knowledge and work that it has brought about. When that issue of Popular Science was published, one essential element of the computer revolution had not yet been invented: the microchip.

We Cannot Predict Tomorrow's Knowledge Today

Those authors could not imagine a worldwide technological revolution before the component that made it all possible was created by man. Our inescapably imperfect knowledge means we can never predict our own future. If we could predict tomorrow's knowledge and its potentials, then we would already know everything today – and we would know we knew it!

This applies to social, political and economic trends as well. Most people in 1900 expected the twentieth century to be an epoch of growing international peace and harmony. In 1911, the British free trader and peace advocate Norman Angell (who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1933) argued in The Great Illusion that war had become so costly in terms of financial expense and wasteful destruction that it would be irrational for the "Great Powers" of Europe or America to be drawn down that path any longer.

But, instead, in 1914, there began the First World War, that went on for four years, took the lives of at least 20 million soldiers and cost (in 2014 dollars) over $3 trillion. And the relatively classical liberal and free market world that prevailed before the "Great War," was shattered.

The twentieth century, as a whole, was the bloodiest and most destructive in modern history due to the rise of political and economic collectivism, in the forms of socialism, communism, fascism, Nazism and the interventionist-welfare state. The conflicts that collectivism brought in its wake have cost possibly 250 million lives over the last one hundred years. No one anticipated this turn of events in 1900.

The Unpredictability of Future Political-Economic Trends

When I was an undergraduate in the late 1960s the book assigned in my first economics class was the seventh edition of Paul Samuelson's Economics (1967), the leading Keynesian-oriented textbook at the time.

There was a graph that tracked U.S. and Soviet Gross National Product (GNP) from 1945 to 1965. Samuelson then projected American and Soviet GNP through the rest of the century. He anticipated that possibly by the early 1980s, but certainly by 2000, Soviet GNP would be equal to or even greater than that of the United States. Notice his implicit prediction that there would be a Soviet Union in 2000, which in fact disappeared from the map of the world in December 1991.

Which of us really expected to see the end of the U.S.S.R. in our lifetimes, without either a nuclear cataclysm or a devastating and bloody civil war? In the mid-1980s the often perceptive French social critic Jean-François Revel published How Democracies Perish, in which he expressed his fear that the loss of moral and ideological commitment to freedom by intellectuals and many other people in the West meant that the global triumph of communism under Soviet leadership was a strong possibility. Instead, it was Soviet communism that disappeared from the map of the globe.

Who in January 1990 anticipated that Saddam Hussein would invade Kuwait in August of that year, setting in motion a chain of events that resulted in two American invasions and a ten-year occupation of Iraq?

Who in 2000 would have anticipated that Bill Clinton's eight years in office would seem, in retrospect, an era of restrained government compared to the explosion in government spending and intervention during the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations?

Historical Chronology Does Not Mean Future Certainty

And who today knows what the whole twenty-first century holds for us? Let me suggest that the answer is: nobody.

As the late Robert Nisbet, one of America's great social thinkers, once pointed out: "How easy it is, as we look back over the past – that is, of course, the 'past' that has been selected for us by historians and social scientists – to see in it trends and tendencies that appear to possess the iron necessity and clear directionality of growth in a plant or organism . . . But the relation between the past, present, and future is chronological, not causal."

The decades of relative global peace and market-based prosperity that preceded 1914 did not mean that war and destruction were impossible for the rest of the twentieth century. The ascendancy of Soviet communism, Italian fascism and German Nazism in the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s did not mean that freedom and democracy had reached their end, though the books and articles of some of the most insightful advocates of individual liberty and limited government in the years between the two World Wars carried the despair and fear that totalitarianism was the inescapable wave of the future.

The persistent and current growth in government intervention and the welfare state does not mean that a return to the classical-liberal ideas of individual liberty, free markets and limited government is a pipe dream of the past.

Human Events are the Result of Human Action

Human events are the result of human action. Our actions are an outgrowth of our ideas and our will and willingness to try to implement them. The stranglehold of Big Government will persist only for as long as we allow it, for as long as we accept the arguments of our ideological opponents that the interventionist welfare state is "inevitable" and "irreversible."

That is, the present trend will continue only for as long as we accept that the chronologically observed increase in government power over the last decades is somehow causally determined and inescapable in the stream of human affairs.

This could have been equally said about human slavery. Few institutions were so imbedded in the human circumstance throughout recorded history as the ownership of some men by others. Surely it was a pipe dream to suggest that all men should be free and equal before the law.

Yet in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries a new political ideal was born – that declared that all men are created equal and endowed with certain unalienable individual rights to life, liberty and honestly acquired property, which no other mortals could take away. So slavery, which Aristotle considered to be the natural condition of some men, was brought to an end before the close of the nineteenth century through the power of ideas and human purpose.

In the 1700s, mercantilism – the eighteenth-century version of central planning – was considered both necessary and desirable for national prosperity. Even Adam Smith, in the Wealth of Nations (1776), believed that its hold over men's minds and actions was too powerful to ever permit the triumph of free trade. Yet in one lifetime following Adam Smith's death in 1790, freedom of trade and enterprise was established in Great Britain and the United States, and then slowly but surely through much of the rest of the world.

This was all made possible because of the rise and partial triumph of a political philosophy of individual rights that argued for the banishment of violence and oppression in the relationships among men.

Liberty's Winning Ideas Are Out There

We cannot imagine, today, how freedom will successfully prevail over our current paternalistic governments, any more than many people could imagine in 1940 a world without German Nazism and Soviet communism, or FDR's New Deal. But that does not mean it's impossible.

Precisely because the future is unknown, we may be confident that trends can and will change, just as they have in the past. We cannot fully know today what arguments friends of freedom will imagine and successfully articulate tomorrow to end government control of our lives. But those arguments are out there, waiting to be better formulated and presented, just as earlier friends of freedom succeeded in making the cases against slavery and mercantilism.

In 1951, Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises pointed out, "Now trends of [social] evolution can change, and hitherto they almost always have changed. But they changed only because they met firm opposition. The prevailing trend toward what Hilaire Belloc called the servile state will certainly not be reversed if nobody has the courage to attack its underlying dogmas."

There is one thing, therefore, that we can predict: patience, persistence and belief in the power of ideas and a well articulated defense of individual rights and free markets will provide the best chance we have to achieve the free society many of us so much desire.