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the Aden Sisters
The Aden Sisters on Gold, Commodities and Near-Term Market Prospects
With Anthony Wile - December 01, 2013
The Daily Bell is pleased to present this exclusive interview with the Aden Sisters
Introduction: Mary Anne Aden and Pamela Aden are the co-editors and publishers of The Aden Forecast, a monthly investment newsletter published since 1982 and the Directors of Aden Research. Their analysis, which is used by individual and institutional investors around the world, specializes in the US and global stock markets, precious metals and foreign exchange markets, as well as the US and international interest rates and bonds. The Adens have authored dozens of reports and articles, and are speakers at investment seminars around the world. Their work has been featured in newspapers in several countries, in such publications as The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, The London Financial Times, Business Week, Smart Money, as well as CNBC and the international television documentary, Women of the World. Due to their consistent long-term track record, The Aden Forecast was named Letter of the Year in 2010 by MarketWatch. The Adens are sisters, born in California. For nearly 40 years, they have followed the world financial markets daily from their Costa Rican base.
Daily Bell: Hello, there. We spoke some two years ago. Since then, gold's gone down a lot. Did your portfolios suffer?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Hello. Thank you. It's great to be with you again. Our positions are down but we've been buying since 2002 and the price is still much higher.
Daily Bell: Why the big trek to $1300? Manipulation?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Gold turned bearish this year during the second quarter collapse from the $1600 level to the $1200 area. Gold ETFs were dumped at the time. And yes, we believe the market has been manipulated just like the stock market has been.
Daily Bell: You didn't see gold and silver in a bubble last time we spoke. Any follow-up thoughts?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Gold had a good 660% rise for 12 years, but a bubble top has yet to occur. We feel it's still to come.
Daily Bell: At the time we spoke in 2011, we agreed with you that gold had another four years to run. Have you revised that timeline?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: All things considered, it looks like we could see a down to lackluster market for the coming year, but then those four years could take over in a big way.
Daily Bell: Is gold going back up? How about silver? Are the two metals still tracking each other?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, gold's fundamentals remain bullish. Demand, for instance, continues growing, especially out of China. And yes, gold and silver are still tracking each other. Even though these markets are very bombed out, they could still fall further before they head higher.
Daily Bell: Is silver a better buy than gold?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes. Once the metals get going on the upside, silver will likely outperform gold.
Daily Bell: What about real estate or farmland?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: It's generally doing well, thanks to QE. Real estate has become a better investment, depending of course on location. It's a selective market.
Daily Bell: Where are we in the business cycle? If this were the 1970s, we'd guess about 1976. Your thoughts?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: It's interesting you say this. We recently showed the similarities in our newsletter between the action in 1976 and today's action. It's very impressive.
Daily Bell: In 2008, your model was 55% cash. Are you in cash now? Equities?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, we're keeping 30% in cash in selective currencies to use as good opportunities arise. We've been invested in equities since 2009. Our current allocation is 50% in equities.
Daily Bell: What are the technicals telling you about the stock market? Is it headed up? How about commodities generally?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: The technicals show the stock market could still rise a lot further. Ongoing QE essentially reassures this. Commodities, however, remain under downward pressure, especially agriculture.
Daily Bell: What's your take on Janet Yellen? Is she really going to be dovish as Fed head?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes. She has already said so. Plus, she was one of the main designers of the Fed's QE stimulus program and she's determined to boost jobs. So Yellen will not be quick to cut back or taper the Fed's bond buying. On the contrary, the easy money will keep flowing.
Daily Bell: Rand Paul has put a hold on her nomination. Will she make it in?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We're nearly certain she will.
Daily Bell: Is the Fed going to be audited, as Rand Paul wants? Should it be?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: It's unlikely but yes, it should be.
Daily Bell: Are you refining your technical analysis at this point? Using any other methodologies? Take us through your analysis and what you're recommending -- individual stocks, or is the market already too pricey for you?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We are always refining our technical tools. We combine these with the fundamentals and it usually works out well. A sample of some of the stocks we're currently recommending are iShares Glbl Telecom(IXP), Mkt Vect Retail (RTH), Nasdaq (QQQ) and iShares Transports (IYT).
Daily Bell: What about overseas recommendations? Any hot spots -- Africa? Asia?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Not yet. The global markets have generally been lagging behind the US market. One big exception is Germany (EWG), which has been very strong, and we've had this in our stable.
Daily Bell: What are some major investment trends these days, in your view?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Stocks are bullish and bonds are bearish. The US dollar is resuming its bear market decline and the global currencies are headed higher. The metals and their shares are bombed out, still vulnerable and near their lows, and commodities are bearish.
Daily Bell: Any more details?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We are invested in the stock market, the gold sector and some currencies. Our favorite sectors have been telecom, retail, technology and transportation. Our country favorite has been Germany. We also like some resource and energy.
It now looks like we're in extreme situations for the time being. That is, gold, silver and gold shares could bounce up while stocks take a breather.
We don't trade in and out, but we do in our trading service. Our stock market recommendations have been our best performers this year.
Daily Bell: What's going on in the Middle East? Why is Syria being destabilized?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Sadly, it's the seemingly never ending conflicts that have prevailed for centuries. In large part it's religious, political, but also territorial and tribal.
Daily Bell: Are we going to see more price inflation?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Eventually we will. But for now, deflationary forces have the upper hand.
Daily Bell: What's going on with China and the BRICs? Are they really a threat to the dollar as a reserve currency? Is the dollar losing clout?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, the dollar is losing clout and China is taking important steps to eventually replace the dollar as the reserve currency. This will take time but it's slowly happening.
Daily Bell: Is a global currency on the horizon?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Possibly. Today's unprecedented actions will eventually cause clear change, and a global currency could be a viable option.
Daily Bell: Is the US going to rebound economically? Has it seen the end of its "empire"?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: That's the big question of the day! The signs are there but if so, it'll be a gradual change and it won't happen from one day to the next. Not being an "empire" doesn't necessarily mean life is going to be bad; it'll just be different. Meanwhile, the economy will likely continue to rebound.
Daily Bell: What do you see happening with the euro and the EU? Are they in survival mode?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: The Eurozone has shown impressive improvement over the past two years. So for now, all is relatively calm. They were in survival mode but Mario Draghi's motto of, "We'll do what it takes and for as long as it takes," seems to be working.
Daily Bell: Is there going to be another euro crisis? We hear Italy may be a target.
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Of course, anything is possible, but it doesn't look like it for the time being.
Daily Bell: Is the West finally snapping back from recession as various central bankers have announced? Is Spain really rebounding? And Greece?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: It appears as though it is, and it has been.
Daily Bell: Is it still having a powerful influence?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, a very powerful influence.
Daily Bell: What do you think of Snowden's revelations? Are they having an impact on the growing surveillance society?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, there are already quite a few political repercussions and tensions among friends.
Daily Bell: Should people try to get out of the US? Should they have second residences elsewhere? Should they have two passports?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We see many people taking this route and they're liking the two options idea.
Daily Bell: You called central banking a necessary evil when we last talked. Still believe that?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes. It's gone way beyond the call of duty. But after all the liquidity in recent years, Main Street hasn't much benefitted, yet Wall Street has.
Daily Bell: Are we closer to a gold standard given the chaos afflicting world currencies? Last time we spoke you were positive about some sort of gold standard but hesitant to provide a timeline. Any more thoughts?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Gold represents monetary discipline, and no one in power cares to have this discipline. Eventually, when the global currency theme is serious, we believe gold will play a role.
Daily Bell: You were writing a book last time we spoke. How's that going?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We put it on the back burner for the time being. We had too many other things filling our plate.
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, we are satisfied. Choppy markets are the worst market for traders, but once a leg up or down is underway, it's a traders dream.
Daily Bell: Any final thoughts? Should people be adding to their gold and silver positions? Or subtracting?
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We're keeping our physical gold and silver. We already lowered our position on gold and silver earlier this year and this smaller position is good to hold for now.
Daily Bell: Thanks for your time.
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: You're very welcome... it's our pleasure.
The Daily Bell
We spoke a lot about gold and silver with the Aden sisters here because they are known in part for their precious metals insights. But it is interesting to see that they have 50 percent of their assets in the stock market itself and believe the market could continue its rise.
We do, too.
There will be no significant tapering, from what we can tell.
- Janet Yellen, the next Fed head, has expressed a determination to continue stimulation until the job picture brightens (which likely will never really happen).
- In England, Mark Carney - the Carney barker - has indicated via forward guidance that the BOE continues aggressive monetary stimulation.
- The JOBS Act is creating a huge pile-up of global warming product that can fed into a rising market.
- Fracking is providing at least hypothetical certainty of sustainable gas and oil beyond the Middle East and will contribute to a "boom" mentality.
- Gold presents little current threat to the status quo, having been bashed repeatedly, and may even go lower.
Does all this sound conspiratorial? Perhaps so but not in a modern age of central banking which legally gives a very few almost absolute monetary power over billions of world citizens. The acts of modern manipulation and the growth of internationalism are directly due to this monetary control.
Over and over when we scrutinize the larger "marketplace" of investing we come up against the ineluctable reality that those who created this faux-investing environment have carefully controlled it at every turn. Now they want to create a larger stock market bubble – one we've explained in numerous articles in the past.
Watch what happens ...