goldsilverinvest

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW, Gold & Silver
The Aden Sisters on Gold, Commodities and Near-Term Market Prospects
By Anthony Wile - December 01, 2013

Introduction: Mary Anne Aden and Pamela Aden are the co-editors and publishers of The Aden Forecast, a monthly investment newsletter published since 1982 and the Directors of Aden Research. Their analysis, which is used by individual and institutional investors around the world, specializes in the US and global stock markets, precious metals and foreign exchange markets, as well as the US and international interest rates and bonds. The Adens have authored dozens of reports and articles, and are speakers at investment seminars around the world. Their work has been featured in newspapers in several countries, in such publications as The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, The London Financial Times, Business Week, Smart Money, as well as CNBC and the international television documentary, Women of the World. Due to their consistent long-term track record, The Aden Forecast was named Letter of the Year in 2010 by MarketWatch. The Adens are sisters, born in California. For nearly 40 years, they have followed the world financial markets daily from their Costa Rican base.

Daily Bell: Hello, there. We spoke some two years ago. Since then, gold's gone down a lot. Did your portfolios suffer?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Hello. Thank you. It's great to be with you again. Our positions are down but we've been buying since 2002 and the price is still much higher.

Daily Bell: Why the big trek to $1300? Manipulation?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Gold turned bearish this year during the second quarter collapse from the $1600 level to the $1200 area. Gold ETFs were dumped at the time. And yes, we believe the market has been manipulated just like the stock market has been.

Daily Bell: You didn't see gold and silver in a bubble last time we spoke. Any follow-up thoughts?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Gold had a good 660% rise for 12 years, but a bubble top has yet to occur. We feel it's still to come.

Daily Bell: At the time we spoke in 2011, we agreed with you that gold had another four years to run. Have you revised that timeline?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: All things considered, it looks like we could see a down to lackluster market for the coming year, but then those four years could take over in a big way.

Daily Bell: Is gold going back up? How about silver? Are the two metals still tracking each other?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, gold's fundamentals remain bullish. Demand, for instance, continues growing, especially out of China. And yes, gold and silver are still tracking each other. Even though these markets are very bombed out, they could still fall further before they head higher.

Daily Bell: Is silver a better buy than gold?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes. Once the metals get going on the upside, silver will likely outperform gold.

Daily Bell: What about real estate or farmland?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: It's generally doing well, thanks to QE. Real estate has become a better investment, depending of course on location. It's a selective market.

Daily Bell: Where are we in the business cycle? If this were the 1970s, we'd guess about 1976. Your thoughts?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: It's interesting you say this. We recently showed the similarities in our newsletter between the action in 1976 and today's action. It's very impressive.

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Daily Bell: In 2008, your model was 55% cash. Are you in cash now? Equities?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, we're keeping 30% in cash in selective currencies to use as good opportunities arise. We've been invested in equities since 2009. Our current allocation is 50% in equities.

Daily Bell: What are the technicals telling you about the stock market? Is it headed up? How about commodities generally?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: The technicals show the stock market could still rise a lot further. Ongoing QE essentially reassures this. Commodities, however, remain under downward pressure, especially agriculture.

Daily Bell: What's your take on Janet Yellen? Is she really going to be dovish as Fed head?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes. She has already said so. Plus, she was one of the main designers of the Fed's QE stimulus program and she's determined to boost jobs. So Yellen will not be quick to cut back or taper the Fed's bond buying. On the contrary, the easy money will keep flowing.

Daily Bell: Rand Paul has put a hold on her nomination. Will she make it in?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We're nearly certain she will.

Daily Bell: Is the Fed going to be audited, as Rand Paul wants? Should it be?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: It's unlikely but yes, it should be.

Daily Bell: Are you refining your technical analysis at this point? Using any other methodologies? Take us through your analysis and what you're recommending — individual stocks, or is the market already too pricey for you?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We are always refining our technical tools. We combine these with the fundamentals and it usually works out well. A sample of some of the stocks we're currently recommending are iShares Glbl Telecom(IXP), Mkt Vect Retail (RTH), Nasdaq (QQQ) and iShares Transports (IYT).

Daily Bell: What about overseas recommendations? Any hot spots — Africa? Asia?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Not yet. The global markets have generally been lagging behind the US market. One big exception is Germany (EWG), which has been very strong, and we've had this in our stable.

Daily Bell: What are some major investment trends these days, in your view?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Stocks are bullish and bonds are bearish. The US dollar is resuming its bear market decline and the global currencies are headed higher. The metals and their shares are bombed out, still vulnerable and near their lows, and commodities are bearish.

Daily Bell: Any more details?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We are invested in the stock market, the gold sector and some currencies. Our favorite sectors have been telecom, retail, technology and transportation. Our country favorite has been Germany. We also like some resource and energy.

It now looks like we're in extreme situations for the time being. That is, gold, silver and gold shares could bounce up while stocks take a breather.

We don't trade in and out, but we do in our trading service. Our stock market recommendations have been our best performers this year.

Daily Bell: What's going on in the Middle East? Why is Syria being destabilized?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Sadly, it's the seemingly never ending conflicts that have prevailed for centuries. In large part it's religious, political, but also territorial and tribal.

Daily Bell: Are we going to see more price inflation?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Eventually we will. But for now, deflationary forces have the upper hand.

Daily Bell: What's going on with China and the BRICs? Are they really a threat to the dollar as a reserve currency? Is the dollar losing clout?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, the dollar is losing clout and China is taking important steps to eventually replace the dollar as the reserve currency. This will take time but it's slowly happening.

Daily Bell: Is a global currency on the horizon?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Possibly. Today's unprecedented actions will eventually cause clear change, and a global currency could be a viable option.

Daily Bell: Is the US going to rebound economically? Has it seen the end of its "empire"?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: That's the big question of the day! The signs are there but if so, it'll be a gradual change and it won't happen from one day to the next. Not being an "empire" doesn't necessarily mean life is going to be bad; it'll just be different. Meanwhile, the economy will likely continue to rebound.

Daily Bell: What do you see happening with the euro and the EU? Are they in survival mode?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: The Eurozone has shown impressive improvement over the past two years. So for now, all is relatively calm. They were in survival mode but Mario Draghi's motto of, "We'll do what it takes and for as long as it takes," seems to be working.

Daily Bell: Is there going to be another euro crisis? We hear Italy may be a target.

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Of course, anything is possible, but it doesn't look like it for the time being.

Daily Bell: Is the West finally snapping back from recession as various central bankers have announced? Is Spain really rebounding? And Greece?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: It appears as though it is, and it has been.

Daily Bell: Is it still having a powerful influence?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, a very powerful influence.

Daily Bell: What do you think of Snowden's revelations? Are they having an impact on the growing surveillance society?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, there are already quite a few political repercussions and tensions among friends.

Daily Bell: Should people try to get out of the US? Should they have second residences elsewhere? Should they have two passports?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We see many people taking this route and they're liking the two options idea.

Daily Bell: You called central banking a necessary evil when we last talked. Still believe that?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes. It's gone way beyond the call of duty. But after all the liquidity in recent years, Main Street hasn't much benefitted, yet Wall Street has.

Daily Bell: Are we closer to a gold standard given the chaos afflicting world currencies? Last time we spoke you were positive about some sort of gold standard but hesitant to provide a timeline. Any more thoughts?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Gold represents monetary discipline, and no one in power cares to have this discipline. Eventually, when the global currency theme is serious, we believe gold will play a role.

Daily Bell: You were writing a book last time we spoke. How's that going?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We put it on the back burner for the time being. We had too many other things filling our plate.

Daily Bell: You have two newsletters, The Aden Forecast, and the new GCRU Weekly Trading Service. Are you satisfied with the weekly trading service? Is it growing?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: Yes, we are satisfied. Choppy markets are the worst market for traders, but once a leg up or down is underway, it's a traders dream.

Daily Bell: Any final thoughts? Should people be adding to their gold and silver positions? Or subtracting?

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: We're keeping our physical gold and silver. We already lowered our position on gold and silver earlier this year and this smaller position is good to hold for now.

Daily Bell: Thanks for your time.

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden: You're very welcome… it's our pleasure.

After Thoughts

We spoke a lot about gold and silver with the Aden sisters here because they are known in part for their precious metals insights. But it is interesting to see that they have 50 percent of their assets in the stock market itself and believe the market could continue its rise.

We do, too.

There will be no significant tapering, from what we can tell.

  • Janet Yellen, the next Fed head, has expressed a determination to continue stimulation until the job picture brightens (which likely will never really happen).
  • In England, Mark Carney – the Carney barker – has indicated via forward guidance that the BOE continues aggressive monetary stimulation.
  • The JOBS Act is creating a huge pile-up of global warming product that can fed into a rising market.
  • Fracking is providing at least hypothetical certainty of sustainable gas and oil beyond the Middle East and will contribute to a "boom" mentality.
  • Gold presents little current threat to the status quo, having been bashed repeatedly, and may even go lower.

Does all this sound conspiratorial? Perhaps so but not in a modern age of central banking which legally gives a very few almost absolute monetary power over billions of world citizens. The acts of modern manipulation and the growth of internationalism are directly due to this monetary control.

Over and over when we scrutinize the larger "marketplace" of investing we come up against the ineluctable reality that those who created this faux-investing environment have carefully controlled it at every turn. Now they want to create a larger stock market bubble – one we've explained in numerous articles in the past.

Watch what happens …

Posted in EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW, Gold & Silver
  • Hugo

    Hi DB,

    Interesting interview but I must say a shame the sisters did not elaborate more. That would have made the interview lots more powerfull. For example, the sisters state they use TA and have tools to analize the market. On the other hand they acknowledge that there is manipulation in the markets. That renders TA a way less powerfull tool (if not useless). That and some other things left me a bit hanging. Still, nice to hear their take on it.

    OT, since the EUro is a such a succes (sarc). East Africa just announced that within 10 years they also have a sort of Euro!

    ”East African Community leaders on Saturday signed the Monetary Union Protocol which is intended to result in a single currency in 10 years time.”

    ”The protocol will be implemented over a ten year period, subsequently leading to creation of a regional central bank whose mandate is to stabilise financial prices as well as monitoring, surveillance and ENFORCING! compliance of all other macro finance matters.

    ”The President commended the council of ministers and the EAC secretariat led by the Secretary General Ambassador Dr. Richard Sezibera for their excellent work in entrenching the integration process.”

    http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/East-Africa-takes-major-step-towards-single-currency/-/539546/2094132/-/8er99i/-/index.html

    What amazes me is that Dr. Richard Sezibera has no background (at least not stated) with the usual suspects like IMF, World Bank, UN etc. He does have a background in health, education, social security and the environment.

  • Danny B

    Where can I buy a pair of rose-colored glasses? Ambrose advises the Germans to politely withdraw from the Euro.
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100026052/ecb-ready-to-print-germany-ready-to-scream/

    World GDP is down 15%;
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-29/when-they-say-global-economy-growing-they-really-mean

    I’ve seen a common myopia in the investment world. Sure, the S&P looks pretty good,,,, except for earnings. The Russell 2000 is close to crashing. But, what about mainstream America? How long can millions survive without a job?
    http://freedomoutpost.com/2013/11/real-unemployment-rate-30/

    ZIRP has destroyed an enormous amount of capital. How long before that affects everything else?

    Summers is calling for 4% negative interest rates. How desperate can you get?
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/20/negative-interest-rates_n_4310001.html
    It may look rosy right now to investors. It remains to be seen just how long that will continue.

  • $22686450

    UK silver isn’t as good a buy since our wonderful taxman sticks a 20% tax on purchases. Whilst gold, being a currency, is VAT free.
    Otherwise I’d agree with her. I’d very much like to have some silver as pocket change but will stick to gold unless the chancellor grows a brain.
    In addition it’s fine for those with day to day investment following to hedge the metals and the stocks but many of us lowly plebs would have difficulty sparing the time for that. I appreciate a great many more Americans dabble than Brits.

    Seems most people don’t believe we have a free market, let alone a free market economy any more -if we ever did. When items like gold start ‘moonwalking’ you have to wonder who’s got the script. I can clearly see why both America and China want gold down at the moment, and if I’m right all I have to do is stockpile and wait for the bang.

    For sure though, things like gold always, always, come back even though there is paper gold now – which is how I guess that’s actually how they manipulate it otherwise it truly is a scarce commodity.

  • Hugo

    Hi DB,

    Have you heard of the fund manager mr Grant Williams? I read his (free) newsletter ”things that make you go Hmmm” for a while now and its quite interesting. He speeches also often http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ab4yqaZ7GAU. This one mostly central banks, bubbles etc. In other intervies he also talks physical. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzzoBVK3fyE. (after 21 min in the vid)

    I sure love the DB to interview him, nudge nudge (smile)

  • Crystal Ball Not

    Well this isn’t a criticism of these two ladies, but they didn’t say anything that many others haven’t already said before. Bottom line is that no one has a clue what’s going to happen in the future or when. I haven’t read/heard anyone who has said a particular market “is bottoming” or “nearing the top” and provided a solid analysis to support their position. Knowing this does save on newsletter subscription costs though. I only subscribe to a couple of them now. – – – The stock market will rise, until it falls. PMs will stay at this level or go lower, and then someday will rise.

  • ALPHAMEG

    The sisters, Aden are wise, and to flesh out this interview assumed neutrality, which is their general position when replying to
    requests for free information. They could have ended the questioning quickly by stating the one item that is influencing all markets,
    namely that “all markets” are manipulated by corrupt global Central Banking in collusion with corrupt global Governments. enough
    said.

  • Danny B

    I posted this 6 hours ago. LMK if it is objectionable;

    Where is Bill Ross? I can’t do all the replies. Albert Edwards has an
    interesting article on profit growth. He maintains that it is the most
    important indicator.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-27/albert-edwards-investors-demand-sign-when-get-out-and-trigger-may-have-just-arrived

    Tyler Durden has a nice graph on bears.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-29/what-happens-when-chart-hits-zer

    Mauldin has a comprehensive report on the failures of central banking.
    http://d21uq3hx4esec9.cloudfront.net/uploads/pdf/131130_TFTF2.pdf

    “John Maynard Keynes referred to what he called the “euthanasia of the rentier”. Keynes argued that
    interest rates should be lowered to the point where it secures full employment (through an
    increase
    in investments). At the same time he recognized that such a policy
    would probably destroy the livelihoods of those who lived off of their
    investment income,”

    Arsonists running the fire brigade;
    ” But according to research cited
    by Howard Davies and David Green in ”
    Banking on the Future: The Fall and Rise of
    Central Banking,”published last year, in 2006″

  • Leon Welch

    Forget about all this up and down and side ways mess. Buy gold and silver and then forget you have it. The world economy is going to blow sky high sooner or later and any one with just half a brain knows that. I have gold and silver and I very seldom think about it because I know how this is going to end. In the end I win.

  • http://GreatRedDragon.com/ EdwardUlyssesCate

    Having just now finished watching “Chasing Madoff” on the IndiePlex channel,
    it’s painfully obvious just how far down the rabbit hole we’ve gone these last couple of decades.
    What makes anyone think they own anything with only their paper promises and their monthly statements.
    No wonder the MSM ran articles this weekend that trust is at an all time low.
    Physical authentic gold and silver in the hand requires no trust.

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