Global Warming: The Incredible Shrinking Meme
By Staff News & Analysis - May 20, 2014

Record Antarctic Ice Extent Throws Cold Water On Global Warming Scare … Antarctic polar ice extent has set another new record, defying alarmist global warming claims. Surpassing the greatest month-of-April ice extent in recorded history, the new record throws cold water on alarmist claims that the Antarctic ice cap has crossed a melting point of no return. – Forbes

Dominant Social Theme: The Earth is melting! The Earth is melting!

Free-Market Analysis: In the past few days we've read numerous articles about how the Antarctic is melting and that it is too late to stop it now.

Being long-time analysts of dominant social themes, we didn't take the meme seriously even though it was repeated over and over again. But the news was so shrill and repetitive that we finally decided to look into it further.

What we found was actually fairly chaotic. There are several sets of facts seemingly being presented. The following BBC article is representative of the confusion.

It begins this way:

Esa's Cryosat mission sees Antarctic ice losses double … Antarctica is now losing about 160 billion tonnes of ice a year to the ocean – twice as much as when the continent was last surveyed. The new assessment comes from Europe's Cryosat spacecraft, which has a radar instrument specifically designed to measure the shape of the ice sheet.

The melt loss from the White Continent is sufficient to push up global sea levels by around 0.43mm per year. Scientists report the data in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The new study incorporates three years of measurements from 2010 to 2013, and updates a synthesis of observations made by other satellites over the period 2005 to 2010.

Cryosat has been using its altimeter to trace changes in the height of the ice sheet – as it gains mass through snowfall, and loses mass through melting.

The study authors divide the continent into three sectors – the West Antarctic, the East Antarctic, and the Antarctic Peninsula, which is the long finger of land reaching up to South America. Overall, Cryosat finds all three regions to be losing ice, with the average elevation of the full ice sheet falling annually by almost 2cm.

The East had been gaining ice in the previous study period, boosted by some exceptional snowfall, but it is now seen as broadly static in the new survey. As expected, it is the western ice sheet that dominates the reductions. Scientists have long considered it to be the most vulnerable to melting.

It has an area, called the Amundsen Sea Embayment, where six huge glaciers are currently undergoing a rapid retreat – all of them being eroded by the influx of warm ocean waters that scientists say are being drawn towards the continent by stronger winds whipped up by a changing climate.

About 90% of the mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is going from just these few ice streams. At one of them – Smith Glacier – Cryosat sees the surface lowering by 9m per year. Some western ice streams such as Pine Island Glacier are retreating and thinning rapidly.

Sounds pretty grim, eh? But the news is not all bad. In fact, the second half of the BBC article is a kind of climb-down that seems mainly aimed at debunking the first half.

It reads like a kind of journalistic schizophrenia.

  • The second part of the story makes the point that certain studies propose that any evolution of the current problem could take several hundred years – not nearly such an alarmist timeline as has been implied elsewhere.
  • Also, even with worst case melting, there would only be about 1.2m global sea level rise. That may sound like a lot, but compare it to the total in Antarctica, which if released could add 58m sea-level rise.
  • We also learn according to the article that "the continent has been largely insulated from some of the warming influences taking place elsewhere in the world."
  • Finally, Prof Duncan Wingham, Cryosat's principal investigator, told BBC News: "We lack the capability to predict accurately how the Amundsen ice streams will behave in future."

Hmm … Doesn't sound like an imminent catastrophe to us despite the alarmist headlines that have been popping up.

Forbes is far more specific about what's going on at the Antarctic from a global warming standpoint. The article quoted at the beginning of this analysis continues as follows:

Global warming alarmists and their media allies are at it again …

"Irreversible collapse of Antarctic glaciers has begun, studies say" – Los Angeles Times

"How Washington coastal cities will look when the Antarctic Ice Sheet melts" – Seattle Post-Intelligencer

"Catastrophic collapse of Antarctic ice sheet now underway, say scientists" – Christian Science Monitor

[But] the good news … is real-world scientific facts show Antarctic ice extent is undergoing a long-term expansion. … The Antarctic ice extent is setting record after record. It's not just the Antarctic, either. Precise satellite measurements of both polar ice caps show absolutely no decline in polar ice since the satellite instruments were launched in 1979.

Not only is total polar ice extent currently greater than the long-term average; polar ice extent has been greater than the long term average for nearly all of the past 16 months.

Winter temperatures throughout the United States are in a 20-year cooling trend, defying alarmist global warming predictions and debunking claims that warmer winters are causing environmental catastrophe.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data, presented by the International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project, reveal this winter's exceptionally cold winter was merely the continuation of a long-term cooling trend … Winters are not getting warmer; they are getting cooler.

The shrillness of the latest campaign combined with easily debunked statistics and news items reinforce what we have already observed: Those responsible for these alarmist memes are feeling increasingly insecure.

In fact, we've noted increasingly shrill calls for penalties against those who don't agree with the current warmist position. It's so bad that a prominent weather scientist recently had to sever his relationship with a mildly anti-warmist think tank because he came under pressure to recant as soon as his affiliation was announced.

In an article entitled, "Eminent Swedish scientist latest victim of Climate McCarthyism," the Financial Post elaborates on the resignation:

… Less than a month after agreeing to join the Academic Advisory Council of the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation, GWPF, one of the world's leading skeptical organizations, the eminent Swedish climatologist Lennart Bengtsson announced that he felt forced to resign. He had come under assault from supposed "colleagues" all over the world. Professor Bengtsson, who is approaching 80, said he was concerned not only for his health, but for his safety.

Described as "a kindly, mild-mannered Swedish grandfather," Professor Bengtsson has had a long and distinguished international career in meteorology and climate research. He was head of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg from 1991 to 2000. In 2000 he became a professor at the University of Reading. Since 2008, he has been Director of the International Space Science Institute in Bern, Switzerland. He has won numerous awards, is a member of many learned societies, and has over 200 publications to his name.

There is no doubt we live in a climate of increased climate fascism. The obvious – egregious – distorting of data to try to promote global warming where there is none and the frank intimidation of reputable scientists is reminiscent of the bad old days of the 20th century when certain regimes tailored facts to suit transient but authoritarian ideologies.

The encouraging element in all this is that warmist proponents are becoming more and more unhinged. This is not the behavior of a group that is winning a debate. The next step is probably the installation of some sort of formal civil or criminal sanctions for those who continue to point out "inconvenient truths" when it comes to warmist propaganda.

But even this won't help a meme failing so badly as this one.

The power elite is surely losing as many battles as it is winning in this Internet era. This is a most significant evolution. When we analyze power elite efficiencies and clout, we should be aware that many such memes are increasingly rejected.

After Thoughts

Absent a "buy-in" from the general public, the evolution of globalism – supported and galvanized by dominant social themes – is increasingly in jeopardy.

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  • The western ice shelf of Antarctica is NOT cantilevered off of the land mass, but is floating on the ocean. When water freezes it expands, making it lighter than water, so it floats. The Archimedes Principle of Buoyancy, unchallenged since 212 BC proves that when Antarctic, Arctic sea ice, and floating icebergs melt, they DO NOT raise the sea level.

    Every body in the Universe emits radiant energy based on it’s temperature [including human bodies]. The ~5,900 C Sun emits a wide spectrum with the following CO2 IR absorption bands/temperatures: 2.7 micron [800C], 4.3 micron [400C] and
    14.7 micron [-80C]. Earth, at 33C emits a narrow spectrum with only the 14.7 micron absorption band. More CO2 would ‘capture’ more incoming, than outgoing and therefore COOL the Earth. Although ‘capture’ is in fact merely vibrating and ‘filtering’ some of the photon energy.

    Water vapor also absorbs in the 14.7 micron range, and since H2O outnumbers CO2 by thousands to one on a per molecule basis, the green meanies were forced to admit H2O is the MOST POWERFUL “magic” greenhouse gas. The average thunderstorm is 20 km in diameter and contains 10^15 joules of energy removed from Earth’s surface by Latent Heat of Vaporization and released at high altitude by Latent Heat of Condensation, a process known as evaporative cooling. The average thunderstorm blocks out most sunlight, then drops 15 x 10^8 kg of COOLING rain, or FREEZING hail, sleet or snow on the Earth. There are over 16 million average thunderstorms COOLING the Earth every year.

    Carbon climate forcing might have been the biggest LIE since the world was flat, except that other elitist funded FRAUDS are equally bad. ‘Peak’ oil is a companion Carbon fraud, see “Fracturing the Fossil Fuel Fable”. Big bang is another fraud that even the ‘father of big bang’ said was a hoax, see “Mysterious DR X says, Universe is NOT Expanding”.

    It is past time to end this elitist directed, false paradigm reality.

  • Danny B

    You can’t claim that the climate change is a useless meme;

    This was all predicted long ago by various people including Jennifer Lawson;

    It all has to do with plasma flows and , as Mr. Slayer has pointed out, Piers Corbyn has that down pretty well.
    Just imagine if every meteorologist were to resign and take classes with Mr. Corbyn.
    Just imagine if every economist were to resign and take Classes with Dr. Fekete.

    You have to keep it all in perspective;

  • Hugo

    Hi DB,

    Think you will like this overview in a multi year review how the MSM is dying.

  • Jim Kluttz

    DB: Finally, Prof Duncan Wingham, Cryosat’s principal investigator, told BBC News: “We lack the capability to predict accurately how the Amundsen ice streams will behave in future.”

    Well, well. That’s pretty close to what we need to hear, i.e., “We lack the capability to predict accurately how the climate will behave in the future.” Sadly, Prof Wingham will probably be looking for a job if he keeps saying things that advance the truth and do harm to the meme.

  • Mike_Hohmann

    Dangerous things, these memes – my understanding of them is at

  • Danny B
  • Danny B

    “Leading British climate scientist Mike Lockwood, of Reading University, found 24 occasions in the past 10,000 years when the sun was declining as it is now, but could find none where the decline was as fast.” So cold its getting that British scientists are stranded in a freezing Antarctic research station when power failed as temperatures hit a record low of minus 55C. Winter is so hostile that the researchers, 11 British, cannot be rescued.”

    Pretty funny. I started writing about this 6 years ago;

  • Danny B

    A fact:
    The State of California on 1/1/2015 imposed a carbon reduction tax 0.15
    cents on every gallon of gas. No one really noticed due to declining gas
    This was done to reduce carbon emissions. Now
    read the following.
    Volcanoes Ian Rutherford Plimer
    is an Australian geologist, professor emeritus of earth sciences at
    the University of Melbourne, professor of mining geology at the
    University of Adelaide. He has published 130 scientific papers,
    six books and edited the Encyclopedia of Geology.
    Born 12 February 1946 (age 67)
    Residence Australia

    Nationality Australian Fields Earth
    of New England,University
    of Newcastle,University
    of Melbourne,University of Adelaide
    Alma mater University of New South Wales,Macquarie
    University Thesis
    The pipe deposits of tungsten-molybdenum-bismuth in eastern
    Medal (2003),

    Where Does the Carbon Dioxide Really Come From?

    Professor Ian Plimer could not have said it better!

    If you’ve read his book you will agree, this is a good summary.

    PLIMER: “Okay, here’s the bombshell. The volcanic eruption in Iceland . Since
    its first spewing of volcanic ash has, in just FOUR DAYS, NEGATED
    EVERY SINGLE EFFORT you have made in the past five years to control
    CO2 emissions on our planet – all of you.

    Of course, you know about this evil carbon dioxide that we are trying to
    suppress – it’s that vital chemical compound that every plant requires
    to live and grow and to synthesize into oxygen for us humans and all
    animal life.
    I know….it’s very disheartening to realize that all of the carbon
    emission savings you have accomplished while suffering the
    inconvenience and expense of driving Prius hybrids, buying fabric
    grocery bags, sitting up till midnight to finish your kids “The Green
    Revolution” science project, throwing out all of your non-green
    cleaning supplies, using only two squares of toilet paper, putting a
    brick in your toilet tank reservoir, selling your SUV and speedboat,
    vacationing at home instead of abroad, nearly getting hit every day on
    your bicycle, replacing all of your 50p light bulbs with £5
    light bulbs ….. well, all of those things you have done have all
    gone down the tubes in just four days.
    The volcanic ash emitted into the Earth’s atmosphere in just four days –
    yes, FOUR DAYS – by that volcano in Iceland has totally erased every
    single effort you have made to reduce the evil beast, carbon.
    And there are around 200 active volcanoes on the planet spewing out
    this crud at any one time – EVERY DAY.

    I don’t really want to rain on your parade too much, but I should
    mention that when the volcano Mt. Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines
    in 1991, it spewed out more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than
    the entire human race had emitted in all its years on earth.

    Yes, folks, Mt. Pinatubo was active for over one year – think about
    Of course, I shouldn’t spoil this ‘touchy-feely tree-hugging’ moment and
    mention the effect of solar and cosmic activity and the
    well-recognized 800-year global heating and cooling cycle, which keeps
    happening despite our completely insignificant efforts to affect
    climate change.
    And I do wish I had a silver lining to this volcanic ash cloud, but the
    fact of the matter is that the bush fire season across the western USA
    and Australia this year alone will negate your efforts to reduce
    carbon in our world for the next two to three years. And
    it happens every year.

    Just remember that your government just tried to impose a whopping carbon
    tax on you, on the basis of the bogus ‘human-caused’ climate-change

    Hey, isn’t it interesting how they don’t mention ‘Global Warming’ anymore,
    but just ‘Climate Change’ –
    you know why? It’s because the planet has COOLED by 0.7
    degrees in the past few years and these global warming
    bull artists got caught with their pants down.
    And, just keep in mind that you might yet have an Emissions Trading Scheme
    – that whopping new tax – imposed on you that will achieve absolutely
    nothing except make you poorer. It won’t stop any volcanoes from
    erupting, that’s for sure.