Euro may only last five years, says senior German government advisor … The euro has a "limited chance of survival" and may only endure another five years, Kai Konrad, one of the German government's closest economic advisers, has claimed. "Europe is important to me. Not the euro," said Dr Konrad. In notably outspoken remarks for a senior German figure, Dr Konrad, chairman of a scientific council that advises the finance ministry, said: "Europe is important to me. Not the euro. And I would only give the euro a limited chance of survival." – UK Telegraph
Dominant Social Theme: The rigor of the Eurocrat Iron Will is such that what is put in place stays in place. There can be no retreat, nor shall there be.
Free-Market Analysis: We continually calibrate the clash between globalist dominant social themes and what we call the Internet Reformation. Which side is winning? What does the outcome mean for investments and even for freedom itself?
Global warming, the War on Terror, Peak Oil – all of these elite memes have been dramatically challenged in the era of the Internet and it is up to the individual to decide whether these themes are sustainable and even investable or whether the collapse is going to be general.
What is very clear is that there is a struggle between those who want a truly international economy and are using various kinds of manipulative techniques up to and including outright war to realize their goals and those who believe the market itself ought to be allowed to operate unimpeded.
The latter group may also seek globalism, but wants to create worldwide markets via competition and the Invisible Hand rather than coercion and trickery. For those in this latter group (count us among them) the defeat of (or at least the pushback against) elite dominant social themes is the scorecard we use to figure out which side is winning.
As we believe that elite transparency and competitive accountability is the best way for human beings to advance, we are not at all upset when globalist manipulations fail.
One such manipulation is surely the European Union and more specifically the euro, which was apparently introduced not just to bind Europe more tightly together but also as a way to precipitate a crisis that would demand political answers.
These political solutions would be forced through at the height of the crisis, thus creating a virtual empire out of a trading union. Various Eurocrats are on record over the past decades as giving voice to this strategy. In this Era of the Internet it is no secret.
But regardless of elite plans, the euro is stumbling and failing – much like other dominant social themes we track. Now in this article excerpted above, we believe we detect a note of panic. Far from salvaging the euro, apparently some at the top of the EU hierarchy are beginning to understand that in trying to manipulate Europe via the euro, they may have done irreparable damage to the larger project. Here's more from the article:
Asked whether he thought the single currency would last five years, the economist said: "A concrete period is hard to identify as it depends on so many factors. But five years sounds realistic."
This pessimistic judgment by a senior adviser runs counter to the official German government view that the euro must be held together for the sake of unity in Europe. Dr Konrad's remarks came in an interview with the newspaper Welt am Sonntag, on the debt crisis in Europe.
The economic adviser warned that: "No country can pile up debt without running the risk that their investors will pull the plug. It's in each [country's] interests to keep their own debts as small as possible.
"Where the limit lies has to be individually decided. That depends among other things on economic growth and the growth of population."
Perhaps Dr. Konrad was speaking out of turn, or perhaps he was enunciating a secret view that is currently circulating but has not yet been voiced so bluntly. Either way, Dr. Konrad's perspective is an enlightening one that may cast light on larger elite psychology.
The article also notes that the official German line has not changed and remains that "the euro is essential for the prosperity of an export-oriented nation." German leaders in particular are "demanding tighter, Europe-wide controls over national budgets."
But just yesterday, we noted the apparent failure of "austerity" as the deflation of yet another elite meme. Now the euro itself is said to be in jeopardy.
The failure of the euro would inevitably have a negative impact on the entire EU project. It would also have significant, general fiscal and monetary impacts, as these failures always do.
Let us continue to watch.