Why the Incoming New Yorkers and Californians Might Not Ruin Your State
By Joe Jarvis - August 08, 2022

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I hate to boil things down to party lines, because two parties definitely cannot possibly match the nuanced beliefs of 320 million Americans.

In fact, I see it as a good thing that 61% of independents feel they have nothing in common with either major party.

But politics can be an indicator to understand broader trends, like how people are self-sorting as they move.

One concern among red-staters is that blue-staters will flee their high tax, high regulation, high cost of living state… and then keep voting for the policies which made it undesirable.

But when you look at where ideological people are moving, they’re mostly going to places that already match their politics.

  • Among Democrats thinking about moving, 48% would consider a blue state, while only 25% would consider a red state.
  • Among Republicans thinking about moving, 51% would consider a red state, while only 20% would consider blue states.
  • Overall, 38% of people considering moving want a state where their vote would “count” more

“More than half of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (55%) said they thought about moving to a state where the government better reflects their political and policy values, while 69% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans considered moving to a state that’s a closer match with their cultural and social values.”

A recent Redfin report notes that a record number of people are looking to move from one metro area to another.

To determine which areas people are fleeing, and which are more desired, it looked at net inflows and outflows of home buyers by metro area.

The top ten metro areas people are leaving are:

  1. San Francisco, CA
  2. Los Angeles, CA
  3. New York, NY
  4. Washington, DC
  5. Seattle, WA
  6. Boston, MA
  7. Detroit, MI
  8. Denver, CO
  9. Chicago, IL
  10. Minneapolis, MN

You might notice some things in common about these cities. They tend to have high tax rates and stifling regulations.

Many experienced violent riots (or “mostly peaceful protests”) throughout 2020. Many have seen crime skyrocket, egged on by soft-on-crime progressive prosecutors.

They were all on the stricter side when it came to Covid lockdowns.

The top ten metro areas people are moving to are:

  1. Miami, FL
  2. Tampa, FL
  3. Phoenix, AZ
  4. Sacramento, CA
  5. Las Vegas, NV
  6. Cape Coral, FL
  7. San Diego, CA
  8. North Port, FL
  9. San Antonio, TX
  10. Dallas, TX

Four of the most popular destinations are in Florida, and another two are in Texas. These are both low tax states which opted not to crush their economies in the name of Covid.

The rest of the list includes two locations which border California, and two locations within California.

One explanation is that many of the Californians fleeing San Francisco simply go an hour and a half north to the neighboring metro area of Sacramento, which they judge to be marginally better. Those fleeing Los Angeles are likely driving the influx to San Diego, two hours south.

A look at the Florida electorate shows this same type of political sorting.

Florida has long been considered a swing state which could go either way during presidential elections:

  • Narrowly went for Republican George W. Bush in 2000, and by a wider margin in 2004
  • Went to Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012
  • Went to Republican Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020.

But despite some close races, a Democrat governor has not been elected in Florida since 1994.

For the US Senate, another statewide election, Florida voters went for Democrat Bill Nelson in 2000, 2006, and 2012. But Nelson was defeated in 2018 by Republican Rick Scott.

And this all happened in the days when the Democrats actually had a significant lead over Republicans in voter registration.

  • In 2010, Democrats had 568,000 more registered voters than Republicans. By 2020, that advantage dropped to a 134,000 voter lead for Democrats.
  • But as of November of 2021, Republican voter registration in Florida surpassed, and now outnumbers Democrats.

This bolsters other indicators that people are organizing themselves along political lines.

For example, the number of “super landslide counties” has been growing.

These are counties in which 80% or more of the vote goes to one of the two major party candidates for president.

In 2004, just 6% of US counties were super landslide counties. By 2020, that number reached 22%.

People are sorting themselves by finding not just the best state that fits their views, but also the most favorable local area in which to settle down.

And if you look at this as an indicator beyond left versus right politics, that is a good thing.

Less conflict, more agreement, more control over government and lifestyle at the local level.

Then rather than politics, you can focus your efforts, for example, on building a parallel economy, to take power away from the corrupt institutions, save the people who rely on them, and make money in the process.

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