On ABC’s “Good Morning America,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election against Donald Trump. Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning, compared with Trump’s 20 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast. -ABC
Nate Silver is back at it, predicting a Trump defeat. The most famous pollster in America was wrong about Trump numerous times during Trump’s rise to the GOP nomination.
Each time, Silver would predict that Trump was about to fade. But instead Trump would surge.
You would think he’d have learned. Instead, on ABC, he said this:
“We’re at halftime of the election right now,” Silver said. “She’s taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There’s a lot of football left to be played. She’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Does Silver really believe what he’s predicting?
Certainly he’s been successful in the past. In 2008 he correctly picked the presidential winner in 49 and in 2012 he picked all 50 correctly.
But Trump is touching a nerve that other modern presidential candidates missed.
And Silver seems to have missed this.
Trump, a nationalist or populist, preaches a message of freedom and prosperity.
This is anathema to corporatists like Silver who seem to believe that government should be in control and that prosperity is not necessary when government can hand out the necessary checks.
In fact, according to Rasmussen, Trump surged in the polls not long after Silver made yet another incorrect prediction. Now, for the first time, Trump leads Hillary nationwide.
After trailing Hillary Clinton by five points for the prior two weeks, Donald Trump has now taken a four-point lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 43% of the vote, while Clinton earns 39%. Twelve percent (12%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
So Silver was wrong again and in fact has never been right.
Like many others functioning in America’s corporate culture, he finds Trump threatening.
We find some of Trump’s statements and positions confusing.
On the other hand, the people he is offending richly deserve to be offended.
That is all to the good.
People like Silver clearly cannot conceive a freer and more just society driven by personal liberty and respect for the individual.
Silver is so indoctrinated by the current system that he is like a fish that does not recognize the water it is swimming in.
Perhaps now that Trump is in the lead, Silver will once more adjust his methodology.
Conclusion: But chances are he is so frightened (and offended), that he would rather be wrong about Hillary than right about Trump. We’ve seen this with others. In fact, top GOPers are walking away from the part to endorse Hilary. They would rather destroy the GOP than support Trump. And Silver is so uncomfortable with Trump that he is letting his business fail.