STAFF NEWS & ANALYSIS
Top Pollster Would Rather Lose His Business Than Pick Trump to Win
By Daily Bell Staff - June 30, 2016

On ABC’s “Good Morning America,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election against Donald Trump. Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning, compared with Trump’s 20 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast.  -ABC

Nate Silver is back at it, predicting a Trump defeat. The most famous pollster in America was wrong about Trump numerous times during Trump’s rise to the GOP nomination.

Each time, Silver would predict that Trump was about to fade. But instead Trump would surge.

You would think he’d have learned. Instead, on ABC, he said this:

“We’re at halftime of the election right now,” Silver said. “She’s taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There’s a lot of football left to be played. She’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.” 

Does Silver really believe what he’s predicting?

Certainly he’s been successful in the past. In 2008 he correctly picked the presidential winner in 49 and in 2012 he picked all 50 correctly.

But  Trump is touching a nerve that other modern presidential candidates missed.

And Silver seems to have missed this.

Trump, a nationalist or populist, preaches a message of freedom and prosperity.

This is anathema to corporatists like Silver who seem to believe that government should be in control and that prosperity is not necessary when government can hand out the necessary checks.

In fact, according to Rasmussen, Trump surged in the polls not long after Silver made yet another incorrect prediction. Now, for the first time, Trump leads Hillary nationwide.

After trailing Hillary Clinton by five points for the prior two weeks, Donald Trump has now taken a four-point lead.  The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 43% of the vote, while Clinton earns 39%. Twelve percent (12%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

So Silver was wrong again and in fact has never been right.

Like many others functioning in America’s corporate culture, he finds Trump threatening.

We find some of Trump’s statements and positions confusing.

On the other hand, the people he is offending richly deserve to be offended.

That is all to the good.

People like Silver clearly cannot conceive a freer and more just society driven by personal liberty and respect for the individual.

Silver is so indoctrinated by the current system that he is like a fish that does not recognize the water it is swimming in.

Perhaps now that Trump is in the lead, Silver will once more adjust his methodology.

Conclusion: But chances are he is so frightened (and offended), that he would rather be wrong about Hillary than right about Trump. We’ve seen this with others. In fact, top GOPers are walking away from the part to endorse Hilary. They would rather destroy the GOP than support Trump. And Silver is so uncomfortable with Trump that he is letting his business fail.

Posted in STAFF NEWS & ANALYSIS
  • Samarami

    All political action is human manipulation — or attempts thereto. I suppose I’d like to see Trump “win” (whatever that’s supposed to mean) for no other reason than ostensibly, on the surface — in that gigantic, all-pervasive silver screen that we’re all supposed to be attentively watching — Trump appears to be zapping the status quo and making hermaphrodites out of “the-elite”.

    However, truth to tell, I’d just as soon see Clinton “win”. I’m gettin’ old. I’d like to live to see the final, ultimate climax that is going to be the result of all this religion and superstition we like to refer to as “government”.

    It is my suspicion Clinton might fill that bill more speedily than Trump — but who am I to know? Besides — that would be billed a “historical event”. I’d bet none of y’all have heard that buzz-phrase — right? Sam

    • Bruce C.

      I fear a Hillary Presidency and all the corporatism and globalism that that implies would be the beginning of a long, awful period – a kind of high tech dark ages, if you can imagine – that wouldn’t culminate quickly at all.

      A Trump Presidency would focus things much more sharply – either he is “just another bs politician”, or he/we still can’t take things back because the rot has gone too far, or he/we are able to make a lot of sane/common-sense changes that provides relief surprisingly quickly.

      Those are the only three possibilities and we’ll know what they are pretty conclusively. Hillary would just be another rung of the descent to hell. I’ve met several people who think Obama has been fine. I fear most people won’t recognize the descent, and then it may not end but just persist. Pain killers while the water boils comes to mind.

      • Jeff Wright

        Maybe the elite just figures out how to incorporate Trump’s ad hockery into their own machinations and accelerate the process?

      • Steven Hotho

        The rot has gone too far. Deconstruction will continue apace. Rodham will be a one term president because chaos in 2020 will result in mass defection and an altered election cycle that will be the end of American politics as we know it. To my mind, the real questions for us are those of the future; what comes after this?

      • Sam Fox

        Bruce, I’m with ya. I’ll take the chance that Trump is an outsider who will do as much as he can to do as he says now over the 199% chance that the wicked witch will continue business as usual & try to surpass barry s at taking down the USA.
        After all, what’s good for business in the USA is also good for Trump’s business.
        SamFox

    • Sam Fox

      Samarami, I’d agree, but I have older children & younger granddaughters. I’d like them to have a shot a decent life free from govt tyranny.

      Besides, I’d hate to see the wicked witch of the East win anything but 25 to life.

      I got a kick outa your “Trump appears to be zapping the status quo and making hermaphrodites out of “the-elite”.” statement. ;-D They been doing it to all of US as well.

      Another Sam,

      SamFox

      • Samarami

        Sam Fox Comment:

        “…I have older children & younger granddaughters. I’d like
        them to have a shot a decent life free from govt tyranny…”

        Believe me, Sam, you and I are on the same page. I have seven kids (all but one now over 50, one about to turn 60), just delivered my 6th great grandchild (a boy), and my 26th grandchild is due in August. Nobody wants more than I to work toward helping your family and mine to provide themselves with better, more productive and fulfilling lives.

        My point is (and I trust you agree) that this cannot be done through political action. As of this moment you and I are but spectators in this bizarre bread-and-circus arena.

        We might urge our families, neighbors and friends to abstain from beans (don’t vote — cease supporting the state). We might show them how to put together some hard resources that will sustain the inevitable collapse of state, but that’s about all. Whether Clinton or Trump or somebody else is elected to be grand wizard of the klan does not affect our efforts one way or the other.

        The challenge of anarchy is to acquire skills necessary to sidestep the beast. Teach your family well. Sam

  • rmagnano

    Nate Silver Is your statement A promise ? I am going to hold you to it so buck up.

  • Renov8

    The perception that is being created by the Left can only be interrupted by the reality brought on by the right. Make sense? With that being said……its time we dealt with more reality than the perception all is ok. The sooner we get this country back on the mend, the sooner the perception will change and reality will come back. It won’t be easy but reality rarely is. No more pink unicorns and special snowflakes…….

  • Bolt Upright

    Globalists, 1%, Wall St., Bernie Sanders support Clinton. Welcome to the NWO.

  • John Ansell

    John Stossel’s favourite betting site puts Trump’s chances at 22.5%. This is hugely encouraging, given that at the end of Brexit polling day the same site had Leave on 8.6%. https://electionbettingodds.com

  • Bruce C.

    If Trump wins there will be a chance, but only the beginning of a chance, to take back this country and hopefully with the necessary appreciation of the uniqueness of its founding ideas.

    The reason it matters if Trump wins is that he – the way the Executive branch is set-up/viewed now – will be able to replace a lot of the bureaucratic heads of many different agencies (unelected posts can be changed by Executive fiat, hopefully this time for the better.) It would also give Congress and “the people” a mandate and HOPE (and that’s no joke) that their will can be manifested. Many incumbents in elected positions will probably also change.

    There will also undoubtedly be vicious attacks and maneuverings – legal or not – by the “leftists”/”globalists”/ “establishment”-whatever you want to call them – to oppose anything and everything, and that’s why he/Trump will need all the support he can get.

    I know this may sound crazy, but I really do think his election will be pivotal. It’s not all him though, it’s the mandate that he represents that matters. Everybody has to be involved in some way and contribute.

    Of course, if Trump ends up being a foil or “turncoat” or whatever then we’re f>>>ked but so would we be with Hillary or any other foreseeable alternative.

    Another possibility is that the system is already too corrupt to salvage despite anything Trump and “we” can do. In that case it should be clear enough to everyone (or at least a critical mass of people) where we stand. A physical revolution or flat out capitulation/”slavery” will be the obvious existential choices at that point, and I hope it doesn’t come to that.

    • Jeff Wright

      The best option is to leave un=elected, un-appointed “czar” and other positions vacant and strip all their down to nothing in the budget.

      • Bruce C.

        Even better than that would be for Congress to take back it’s Constitutionally mandated responsibilities, which they have slowly given away to various agencies for decades, and declare the many rules imposed by those agencies null and void. I far as I can tell it is absolutely legally possible to reverse a lot of rules from the EPA (for example) by Congress, it just takes the political will to do so. That’s what a Trump mandate could fuel.

  • EDD

    Within every article I read, (and is true of other readers), there are certain statements that just seem to jump out, (resonate), with the reader. That is also true in this article. E. g. “Silver is so indoctrinated by the current system that he is like a fish that does not recognize the water it is swimming in.” There is a phrase; ‘a fish doesn’t realize it is swimming and living in a polluted stream. It has always lived there.”

    This parallel exists in the events of a persons life. I am old enough to remember how much simpler life was in the 50’s and 60’s. But in reality, was it? Over the years. increased technology has given us more conveniences that, at first, are a novelty. Then, over time, these conveniences become a necessity to keep up with daily activities. The cell phone is one prime example of this phenomenon.

    Nate Silver was born in 1978 whereas I am 30 some years his senior. Most of my life has been spent as an automobile technician. However, I have had many interests outside of my vocation. Happily, during my career, I have been open to change. The changes in the automotive field began to accelerate rapidly starting circa the 1960’s. I relate this because the timeline of my life is far different than that of Silver’s.

    The years surrounding Silver’s birth date also began to exhibit an acceleration of a negative nature; that of declining moral values. (By no means am I indicating I am saint). All that I am pointing out is that certain elements of indoctrination also was accelerated as more and more textbooks were being being published by fewer publishers, i.e., more control over content. Silver’s indoctrination was much different than mine. If he would become a seeker of truth outside of his vocation, perhaps he would view events differently.

    I get so many emails and delete some which I later wish I had kept for reference. One email led to a website which showed how slanted polls can become. On that site, the sampling of those polled showed a discrepancy of no little factor. I. e., the number of Demo’s vs the number Repub’s for one. It was an eye opener but demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt how polls are often used to slant public opinion. If people see Trump as being behind Clinton substantially, would there be those who see this as a large hurdle to overcome? And would this discourage some voters from attending election polls?

    Regardless of the elite’s manipulations, this seems to be a year of surprises. Maybe after 7 and 1/2 years of Obama’s ‘hope and change’, many of those who who are pre and post millennials are finding the stream to be so polluted they surface to breathe purer air. Most of that generation are very affluent in surfing the ‘net and are discovering, for them, new views which are ‘old hat’ for my generation.

    I am an optimist and I see some in this new generation that are seeking truth and are desiring to remove the filth of the lies generated by the elite’s media propaganda. Am I a dreamer for a more sensible future? Only time will tell.

    • Sam Fox

      EDD, jolly good show there bro. Looks like we are close to the same age. I got here 08-13-’48, on a Friday no less. 🙂 When I was a little tyke growing up in the 50’s my Mom was a waitress. In the economy of that day, Mom was able to buy an almost new Ford Fairlane & a modest new house. She kept my brother & I clothed & fed. We didn’t live fancy, but we lived fairly well.

      Iv’e been thinking the polls are rigged for a long time. You mention a little of why I’ve also thought so. I am trying to understand how can they talk to only 4-500 to maybe a 1,000 people & extrapolate their ‘results’ onto millions of voters. Makes no sense.

      It’s easy I’d say to get what ever results are preconceived by the way the Q’s are phrased & who they poll.

      Methinks that Trump is way ahead of Hilldybeast, but ‘they’ don’t want us to know. It’s IMO an attempt to manipulate voters or as you said “how slanted the polls have become.” AMEN to that one!

      I grew up in about the same time frame as you. Yeah, tech has come a long way, but human nature isn’t changed by it. I don’t mind the tech so much as I do the way a lot of it us used. Tracking, info gathering…not so good. And I really mind what I perceive as what ‘they’ have in mind, a personal RFID chip in everyone.

      Maybe that’s why there is so much talk these days of getting rid of cash. With the chip as a payment source, there will be no freedom. If someone stands up to big bro, BB can cut them off.

      IMO the movie Enemy Of The State with Will Smith & Gene Hackman portended a lot of stuff that is not so healthy for freedom, liberty & personal rights.

      Enjoyed your post.

      SamFox

      • EDD

        Sam; I entered this world on November 28th, 1944 at 4:50 a.m. That means I am a Sagittarius and I fit the profile pretty well. Philosopher, adventurer and archer; all rolled into one. And I may tend to be somewhat wordy, but I don’t want to be misunderstood. Therefor I try supplying enough background material so that reader can readily understand the logic I used to arrive at my conclusion.

        It doesn’t make me right all the time but it increases the possibility for a good debate. And I am the first to admit when I make an error.

        Like you, I have suspected that polls are grossly slanted many times to reflect an intentional mis-direction aimed at swaying public opinion. TPTB are masters at the art of deception; and those in our age group have seen a lifetime of events that somehow doesn’t correlate to how the MSM reports the said events.

        I submit: J.F.K., Ruby Ridge, 911, Waco, Murray building, etc. ad-nauseous. And this is just events that occurred in America. Now the DB adds another in twist in the (bombing?) events surrounding Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

        You mentioned the RFID chip. I see this as a scare tactic, (even though it is possible), and TPTB uses a Christian concept to reinforce this fearmongering; the number of the beast. This post may not be the format to submit my views, but the number 666 is grossly misunderstood and in reality, is much more profound. During my formative years, Revelation seemed to be a dark book but I have come to realize it’s message in a more optimistic way.

        To your health and our continual growing awareness, friend.

  • Jeff Wright

    He can’t believe that a 1/5 chance might just hit this time. I’m still expecting Clinton’s campaign to be derailed by an FBI that refuses to let a serial Info Security Felon off the hook.

    Normalcy bias has taken hold everywhere. That’s why so few thought Brexit would pass. We’re entering the anomalous phase of the transition in the Internet Reformation..

  • Praetor

    Letting his business fail! And, so it goes in the final stage of socialism. Is this not a mental disorder. The U.S. and the World are bankrupt, is this not a mental disorder. Nate Silver, may wish to live under a bridge, and fight rats for a piece of bread, is this not mental diseases. This country, U.S. and the world are dying from debt.

    Silver was on ABC, (All Be Commie or Clinton) network.

    Lets face it, if the country is going bankrupt what better person to be in charge, but, Trump!!!

  • Haywood Jablome

    Did the election already happen and I slept through it?

  • Yup

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